Footy Forensics: Crows v Blues

They may be missing their captain but that won't stop the Adelaide Crows from pilling on the points at home against a hapless Carlton side that's bereft of both confidence and talent. 

Taylor Walker is out for the Crows but the home side welcomes back Eddie Betts as well as Jake Kelly down back. Fogarty in as a ready-made replacement for Walker. 

The Blues do get their #1 ruckman back in Kruezer but they lose gun young forward Charlie Curnow as well as Caleb Marchbank down back. Net loss for the Blues at selection especially if the second ruckman they are playing in Phillips is ineffective as a forward target (as most second ruckman are). 

$1.03 for the Crows. One dollar, and three cents. You put a dollar on the Crows and if you win you wont even be able to buy a red frog. 

Given their $14 H2H price the Blues loom as the value (only just) option according to Stats Insider who have them winning 8% of the 10,000 simulations the model has run. 

No good options here for mine. Let's keep looking. 

Now we're talking. Whilst the SI models have the Crows winning just 46% of games when Carlton has the +56.5pt start, I feel the Crows will belt the Blues to a near coach-sacking loss here so I'm more than happy to take the Crows to cover the spread. 

Adelaide has 100+ points in them. That is a given. What is less certain is how many the Blues will score given no Curnow, a resting ruckman and the return of Kelly down back for the Crows. Can't see them clearing 50 which makes Adelaide need 120+. Staying clear of this market given the kicking efficiency in front of goal displayed in recent rounds by all teams. 

Stats Insider says No bets here. Blues are very little hope whilst the Crows are far too short H2H and the spread and Totals are bang on the models think. 

I am a little (a lot) more confident the Crows can cover that 56.5pt Line and I think that's the bet.