Footy Forensics - Cats v Tigers

Just how tough / good are Geelong? 

It's a question the footy world have been asking all season and this afternoon at the MCG against a rejuvenated Richmond they will get their answer. 

Teeming rain and strong winds this morning in the nations' sporting capitol are expected to ease considerably by the 3:20pm bounce but regardless of weather this game will be a very contested affair. 

For me it comes down to whether Geelong possess the foot skills and composure necessary to penetrate the Richmond full-team defence which sweats on any errant disposal then punishes on turnover. 

I think they can which makes this game a very close one to call. 

Stats Insider like the Tigers here, predicting Richmond to beat Geelong by 15pts 83-68. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model the Tigers are winning 68% of games which makes their $1.58 H2H price the value play. 

I'd go along with that. Even if it hails there will be 50,000+ Richmond fans baying for free kicks which does have an impact on the outcome in these close games. 

Weather and Teams news;

• Geelong have recalled fringe first graders Gregson, Guthrie and McCarthy for Parsons, Black and Jones
• Richmond's in's are big with Martin and Rioli back into the team alongside Graham and debutant defender Ryan Garthwaite who comes in for the injured Astbury. 
• Majority of Melbourne's wet and windy weather is expected to hit in the morning so check the BOM Radar and Stats Insider Match Page before bounce to make sure you have all the variables covered. 

Geelong are faster and much more adept at scramble defence than are teams like Essendon who got butchered on turnover against Richmond. I will be surprised if the Tigers put a big score on the Cats. 

Stats Insider agrees, finding only a very slim advantage for Richmond at the  +11.5pt Line to Geelong. 

If it rains then obviously the Unders is the play. I expect this game to be a low scoring one regardless though - two top teams playing on a cold, miserable day combine to make for a contested tackle-fest of a game usually. 

There is a good chance Rance will take Hawkins in Astbury's absence which could put the clamps on Geelong's forward structure and scoring ability. Danger the wildcad forward obviously. 

I'm lining right up with the model here. Richmond to win in a low-scoring game looks the most likely outcome but like the model, my confidence levels are not high given the weather variable and closeness of the contest. 

Value / best bet for mine is to take the Unders and enjoy watching two good teams bash each other for four quarters. 

Tigers by 10. 

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