Footy Forensics - Cats v Swans
Apr 30, 2018, 5:12AM
It's fair to say the Cats have got unbelievably lucky here.
Hosting the Swans sans Buddy Franklin, particularly when you have no key defenders, is as close to winning as a team can get before the bounce.
It's not just Franklin either - the Swans have no Towers, no Reid and have also lost Dan Hannebery.
Yet still, Stats Insider is predicting this game to be pretty tight.
The Cats get Tom Hawkins back which is huge for them, he will trouble the Swans key backs just as Walker did last week.
So a huge superstar forward goes out for the Swans and the Cats, who are at home, get their big man back. This is reflected in the H2H market.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Geelong are winning 68% of games.
Sydney have enjoyed Kardinia Park in recent seasons and the team was primed for a bounce-back effort game after losing to the Crows last week but now, well, I just don't see that the Swans have the cattle to get the job done against the Cats on their home deck.
Despite their (slight) value, I can't have them at the $2.90 H2H price, prefer to take the Cats who i can't see dropping this game.
Stats Insider likes the Swans at the +16.5pts. Whilst I agree the Cats wont blow the Swans away I can't even take the Swans with that line given they have no forward line.
The Total Points market looks more appealing for mine. There will be points in this game as the Buddy Vaccuum switches off the Swans midfielders will find forwards they didn't realise they had and likely hit up plenty of short leads which could trouble the Cats defenders.
Geelong rarely get held to low scores at their home deck.
As you can see the Stats Insider models are recommending no bet on the main markets. For mine the Cats win this by 2-3 kicks but there is definitely a Sydney bounce-back factor in play here and the kids they have brought in can all play so I can't have that line.
Overs is the play here for mine. Those betting on disposal markets consider Kieran Jack who is likely to get plenty of midfield minutes this game.
Will be a tight one early but will break open late - Geelong by 15
