Footy Forensics: Cats v Lions
Last updated: Jul 28, 2018, 1:15AM | Published: Jul 27, 2018, 6:16AM
There might be a top-of-the-table blockbuster happening at the MCG but the value is down the road at Kardinia Park where a plucky Lions side looks well-placed to hold a generous Line against the Cats.
There are smiles galore on the Stats Insider Cats v Lions Match Page with the model predicting solid edges in multiple markets.
When markets opened the Line for the Lions was 36.5pts so early punters will be thoroughly pleased with jumping in early given the post-teams adjustment.
Despite shaving 3pts off the spread, Stats Insider is smiling nice and green (sunnies on!) about the Lions with that 33.5pt line, with the model predicting a 27pt win to Geelong 107-78pts.
The Cats have made just one change from the side that got out of jail against the Dees last Saturday with Lachie Fogarty coming in for Jamaine Jones. The Lions have two huge inclusions though, welcoming back Luke Hodge and Harris Andrews into that backline.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, the Cats are predicted to win 76% of games. The model is hating the Cats price relative to that percentage and instead has identified a nice little edge for the Lions H2H.
If you fancy a boilover you are certainly getting good value for the Lions according to the model.
Looking at the Spread and Totals markets the smiles keep getting wider and greener.
Since that famous 'miracle on grass' game in 2013 (if you don't know it, google it!) the Cats have absolutely thumped the Lions, particularly recently. Their match in R22 last year was an 85pt win to the Cats (163-78) and in 2016 the Cats won both games with a combined winning margin of 131 points!
Despite this horrible recent form against the Cats, popular opinion has started to swing around for the Lions in this one after a really strong month of footy.
The Lions are going that well that Josh Walker is dominating games. That should tell you all you need to know about the enthusiasm and belief levels in Brisbane.
Last week the Cats were dominated for the majority of the game by a gun ruckman and a determined midfield - the Lions have that.
What they also have, and what Melbourne lacked, is a very effective defence.
With Andrews and Hodge joining Rich, Gardiner and Walker down back for Brisbane it would be folly to assume Tom Hawkins will be able to dominate like he did last week.
Yes, the Cats are always dangerous at Kardinia and were Hodge not returning for the Lions a case could be made that Geelong could jump the young Lions side early and then put the foot down.
But Hodge is back, the Lions cubs have belief, their guns are firing and their defence is back to full strength. Those edges the model has identified look better and better!
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