Footy Forensics: Cats v Kangaroos

The Scott Bros Derby arrives in Geelong with the home side heavy favourites to beat the Kangaroos who have been, well, much much better than the Cats have this season. 

The 'Geelong in Geelong' factor is weighing heavily on markets in this game. Too heavily I think. This unrealistic expectation by bookmakers that Geelong will return to their dominating ways without any ruck or key defence presents an excellent opportunity for punters. 

Stats Insider has the Cats winning this by 13pts 88-75. 

Geelong are unchanged from their domination of the Suns last Saturday while North Melbourne have the one forced change with Cam Zurhaar coming in for the injured Jed Lamb. 

Zach Tuohy will be LOVING the fact that Lamb has been omitted. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Geelong are winning 65% of games which makes the $2.80 about the Kangaroos the value play in the H2H market. 

I actually like the Kangas in this market because North matchup very well against the Cats. They have a great spine and a very underrated midfield who will constantly be on the front foot at stoppages thanks to Goldstein's dominance. 

Ahern was superb for North first up last week he will add to the midfield depth and the Kangas also have the unique ability to completely shut down on one of the Cats star mids. Jacobs almost certainly gets Ablett to start. 

The real value is at the Line for North.

Geelong was formidable in Geelong (and everywhere else for that matter) because on the rare times when they lost a centre clearance the likes of Taylor, Mackie, Enright and Lonergan would win the ball back and fire it back into attack. 

They are gone and so is Geelong's ability to repel attacking raids - and don't even get me started on their 'ruck' division. 

Kangas will be in this until very late in the last. They will not go away even if the Cats start well. North believes now and they trust their style of play which is huge in modern footy. 

Not a lot of value in the Totals market with Stats Insider highlighting just how close the 162.5pt Total is to the predicted game total. If I had to lean one way I'd take the Overs but I'll be staying well away from this market due to a lack of value.

Stats Insider and I concur that the Kangas are the value bet both H2H and at the Line but as you can see there is not enough value here for the SI model to be confident enough to assign a 'star' rating. 

Kangas can win this though and I am just really struggling to find a reason not to take them at that +16.5pt line they are being gifted. 

North by 4pts.