Footy Forensics: Cats v Giants

Last weekend ended in Cat-astrophe (you're welcome) for Geelong as locals saw their team run down in the final quarter by the Swans. History will not be repeating itself tonight. 

The Cats welcome back Zac Smith who not only loves Kardinia Park but also enjoys the solo ruck job - he will dominate against the ruck-less Giants ensuring the Geelong on-ballers get first use and great service (something they have not had all season). 

Adding to my Cat confidence is the absence of Jeremy Cameron, Toby Greene and Brett Deledio from the Giants lineup. GWS have reached a critical mass of injuries this week which coupled with the Cats inclusions (Scott Selwood back in as well) combined to spell trouble for the visitors. 

Bounce-back / response factor very (very!) much in play for the Cats as well, you can guarantee Chris Scott will have made it abundantly clear that pride has been lost and needs to be restored. 

But enough of me pumping up the under-performing Cats, let's look at what SI has to say about the Head to Head market. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, the Cats are winning 70% of them which does make their $1.45 price tag the value play. GWS far too short as outsiders for mine given who they have lost. 

Once teams dropped the Giants' spread went from +9.5pts to +17.5pts which gives you an indication of the impact the in's/out's will have on the result. 

The Giants have been playing some great footy and will go into this game looking to shark Smith's ruckwork and have an extra at ground level but if Smith has a game (which I suspect he will) then the Cats mids will be feeding their forward line all night and that +17.5pts will get chewed up real fast. 

This is a really good chance to go Overs if the rain stays away. There is a small chance of a thunderstorm forecast but if that doesn't eventuate I can see both teams scoring freely enough to clear that 162.5pt mark. 

As you can see SI thinks the Total Points market is bang on almost (slightly favouring Unders).

Not much value out there for Stats Insider first up this weekend with the Spread and Totals bang on the mark. 

Personally I feel the Cats will put in a huge bounce/back performance and blow the Giants away here so I'm happy to take them H2H as well as with the Line and Overs sans rain). 

Cats by 20+.