Footy Forensics: Cats v Demons
Last updated: Jul 21, 2018, 2:51AM | Published: Jul 21, 2018, 2:16AM
It's a huge game with big consequences at Kardinia Park this evening as the eighth placed Cats host the sixth placed Dees to remain in finals contention.
Punters can bank on a four-quarter effort and fiercely contested game but Melbourne have lost a few crucial cogs in their team in recent weeks and with Lachie Henderson returning for Geelong, the statistical tides have begun to turn for the home team.
Stats Insider has simulated a relatively close game tonight with the Cats holding off the Dees by 11 pts 88-77.
Before we get into the markets lets cover some intangibles that are in play in this game;
- Geelong have brought in Lachie Henderson for his first game of the season but don't expect cobwebs, he has had a thorough VFL prep. Henderson is a huge plus for the Cats whether he plays back or forward.
- Melbourne have lost offensive defender Michael Hibberd which is a big blow. With no Viney, Lever and now no Hibberd the Dees have just reached a critical mass of good players in crucial positions. Their backline looks very light on for size.
- Melbourne have been horrible against key forwards this season and look very exposed to a good game from Tom Hawkins.
- Max Gawn should have an absolute feast again tonight but Stanley has been in decent form and even more importantly, Geelong are used to losing the hitouts now. They will rove Gawn as much as the Melbourne mids are.
- Fine and sunny in Geelong for tonight's clash. Cats sit in eighth and a loss will likely see them bundled out of the eight so expect them to be switched on.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Geelong are winning 62% which makes them the slight value play at the H2H market at the $1.58 quote.
Given the out's for the Dees it is difficult to see Melbourne holding up in defence which means they will need to kick a big score to stay in touch with Geelong.
The Cats have been bolstered by Henderson who can help stop any bleeding down back should Gawn start to dominate the clearances. Both the stats and the intangibles are pointing to a Geelong win which makes that H2H price appealing particularly in multipliers.
The model has identified the slightest of edges for the Dees at the spread (+11.5pts) but given the personnel changes at selection and Melbourne's horrible history against big key forwards it is difficult to make a case for the dees to hold a line of less than two goals.
Value is not just not there in this market.
Speaking of value being just not there, Stats Insider can't split the Totals market at all - 10,000 simulations and the model has landed smack bang on that 165 mark.
Expect the Cats can get up near that 90pt mark, it is just the question mark of how Melbourne can move Geelong's defence around to be able to impact the scoreboard. If they go inside 50 like they have been recently, Geelong will pick them apart.
Value can tend to tighten up on the run into finals particularly against two sides still in contention so it is not that surprising to see a lack of value on offer here.
Geelong H2H looks the best play.
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