Footy Forensics: Cats v Blues

Geelong at home coming off an embarrassing loss and playing against a lesser side - lock them in for a massive win right? 

Just hold your horses there, I'm not so sure the Cats will be as dominant as the markets are suggesting.  

The Stats Insider models have predicted a dominant 47pt win to Geelong. It is difficult to argue with the Cats winning this one but I am not so sure about the nature of the win. Few intangibles to cover first before we get into the markets.

Coach Chris Scott has axed the perennial cuspers in Horlin-Smith, Thurlow and Parsons and has made a statement by dropping Zac Smith who was towelled up by the Essendon ruck division which is just flat out embarrassing. 

Rhys Stanley gets recalled as does Ratugolea to form a makeshift ruck combo, Parfitt returns which will be a boost, and young forward Jamaine Jones comes in to inject some forward fifty tackling pressure. 

Carlton are coming off an equally devastating loss and are without captain Marc Murphy again. Coach Bolton has made a few statements of his own dropping Garlett, Graham and Mullett. 

The Curnow brothers have become Carlton's beating heart and their return along with Weitering and Cunningham signals a big net gain for the visitors. 

I would not underestimate Carlton's desire here, they will be equally as livid with their effort as Geelong were last week.

Of the 10,000 simulations run by Stats Insider the Cats are winning 90% of games which makes Carlton at $11.69 the slight value H2H play today. Cat's at $1.05 after how they played last week is an affront to punters. Aside from maybe (maybe) a small flutter on the Blues at that very high price, I'm moving right on from this market.

This is the first of two markets I think offer value to punters in this game and its the Blues with that ever-expanding Line that appeals. 

I suggested mid-week that the +43.5pts for Carlton would climb so hopefully you didnt jump on early. +53.5pts is a monster margin to mow down for any team and whilst the Cats could click straight into fifth gear from the second gear they have been putting around in last few weeks, it's not going to be that simple I think. 

The big factor helping me like the Blues at the Line is Kruezer. He was beaten by Gawn last week but he will destroy the Cats rucks here, ensuring Carlton get their fair share of clearances and generally keeping the Blues midfield pressure high. 

With McKay and Curnow in the forward line, Carlton possesses genuine goal scoring power. I can see them hitting that 60-70 mark here which begs the real question, can Geelong clear 125pts? 

I think not. I expect the Cats to surge at some point but I'd be surprised if the margin was more than 40 which makes the Blues a pretty good play here. SI has them winning 54% of games at that 53.5 start. 

The Totals have been horrid for punters this season particularly taking the Overs, but in this game I can see free-flowing footy particularly after halftime. Always depends on the set-shot accuracy of course but I like the Overs here. SI has overs at that 54% mark as well. 

Fully aligned with SI in this one. The models are saying No Bet but I think a dip at Carlton with that 53.5 start as well as (or into) the Overs is well worth it here. 

Cats by 25.