Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Tigers

A game between two teams sitting at 9th and 14th on the ladder hardly sounds like a must-watch, but all eyes will be on the Cinderella story in the making on Friday night.

Four points outside the Top 8, the Tigers can close the gap to two with a win over the Bulldogs and extend their dream of playing finals football for another week. We thought the Cowboys and their path to the Grand Final was incredible last year, but that's nothing compared to the thought of Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall making a run through September in 2018.

Despite starting their run late, the Stats Insider Model likes the Tigers to pick up their third win on the trot and keep the pressure on the Panthers, Broncos and Warriors this week.

The scoreline may jump out given the Tigers are only tipped to win by two, but it shouldn't.

Both teams are alongside the Sharks with an NRL-high nine 'close games' this season according to NRL.com.

The Tigers have the second-smallest averaging margin of victory of all 16 teams at just 8.1 points while only two sides lose games by less than the Bulldogs average of 9.6 points.

Neither side is unfamiliar with a tight finish which is why the Head-to-Head market is so interesting.

By winning 46% of the 10,000 simulated matches, the Model is giving the Bulldogs a +10% edge against average market probabilities.

Considering the Bulldogs and their habit of falling short in games (think Round 17 against the Raiders), the Tigers warrant the 8% lean head-to-head.

They've proven to be capable of winning close games late against some of the best teams in the competition. The last as recent as Round 18.

Wests do it with their defence which is ranked fifth in the NRL conceding just 17.6 points per game. However, when it's their main focus like we've seen at various stages this season, it's up there with the Storm and Roosters as the best in the competition.

Ignore the fact the Tigers miss more tackles than any other side with 38.6 per game. It's their ability to scramble and get their bodies in front - whether they complete the tackle or not - that makes them so good.

It's no coincidence the Tigers are also second in tackles made with 352.3 per game.

Given what they have to play for and their form coming in, the Tigers to win a sensible expectation.

It's the two sides and their awful attack that has the Model infatuated with the Bulldogs and their +6 Line.

With the Bulldogs covering the +6 Line in 63% of the 10,000 simulated matches, the Model has identified a +13% edge.

Much of that will have to do with the fact the two sides are 13th and 14th in attack.

Canterbury's fifth-tackle options are the beyond poor, yet they average 0.1 points more than Wests' 15.8 points per game.

Neither side is likely to race out to an unassailable lead and with Canterbury's propensity to hang tight and stick around in games, it not outrageous to think they can stick with a Tigers side that has beaten the 2nd and 3rd team on the ladder in back-to-back weeks.

When it comes to the Over/Under, it's the lack of points coming out of both sides that has the Total down at 36 points.

The Model can't split them, and it's no surprise.

Wests have managed to tick the scoreboard over a little more than usual throughout the last fortnight while the Bulldogs haven't cracked double-digits in the same period. 

It's unlikely either side races out and piles on the points, but the 36 Total doesn't warrant a lean either way.

We go to the Line for the value.

With the +13% edge over the average market probabilities, the Model is pointing to the Bulldogs at their +6 Line as a value bet.

Their position on the ladder doesn't scream confidence, but their habit of competing in close games does.

Back the Bulldogs and their defence to put a lid on this hot and cold Tigers attack to cover the +6 spread.

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