Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Suns

This game is one of those games where a case can be made for either team in a variety of markets so let's tread carefully through some intangibles before we get to see what the data is saying.

Firstly to the team changes and the Bulldogs lose captain Easton Wood which is a blow to an already diminished back six. His loss would be felt more acutely though were the Suns at full strength but they are far from it especially up forward. 

Both Tom Lynch and Steven May are out for the visitors which creates a huge hole at either end for the Suns. Ballard and Crossley have been brought in to rectify this in the forward line, whilst Sexton and Martin are solid smaller options out of the goal square. 

The Gold Coast forwards are still dangerous, it is in defence where the Suns will get opened up without their inspirational full back -  I wouldn't be surprised to see Sam Day play a decent chunk of the game at CHB.

Compounding these out's for the Suns is the fact the game is being played in Ballarat where spotting a Suns fan in the parochial Bulldogs crowd will be like finding Wally. 

Stats Insider is predicting a dominant win to the Bulldogs and no matter how deep I dig or how contrarian I get, I can't disagree. 

Without May the Suns have historically leaked points like a sieve and with no Lynch to at least halve the Suns defensive bail-out kicks it is easy to see the Dogs setting up behind the ball and pumping it straight back in time and again. Of the 10,000 simulations run by SI the Bulldogs are winning 80% of games, which makes the Suns $5.15 H2H price the value (albeit very slight) play. 

Were the Dogs a side that didn't suffer from extreme and sudden Yips Onset Disorder I could maybe consider that $1.18 but for a team that could be 3.15 at full time I just can't. 

This is where it gets interesting. The Suns are getting a big start here which means despite the Bulldogs inaccuracies in front of goal, the bookies are expecting big inside 50 numbers from the them and for that weight of possession to lead to points eventually. The obvious intangible is of course accuracy in front of goals but a less obvious one does come to mind. 

With no tall timber up forward the Suns simply must hit up short leads. They play their best footy when they do this and if they can get early reward on the scoreboard against that depleted Bulldogs back six then I can see them sticking to the task and either winning or losing narrowly. 

As you can see the Totals is bang on according to the SI models. Not a market I'd be looking at given the set shot accuracy of both sides but if I had to have a flutter here I'd take the Overs in a game where both sides lack that dominant defender to completely dry up scoring. 

No Bets for SI in this game. The models have determined that there is slight value about the Suns at the H2H price and I suspect that +34.5pt Line is just under the mark to earn a star of confidence. 

In a normal world of footy the Bulldogs put their kicking for goal woes behind them in a really dominant win but this season has proved anything but normal. 

If the Suns can get off to a decent start (expect Witts to be dominant) then they can hang in there but with so much inexperience in their side and no May down back I expect the Bulldogs will have a few patches where they kick 3-4 goals very quickly. 

Dogs by 40.