Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Magpies

The Bulldogs have been plucky of late but with a bout of the collective yips makes it hard to take them against a Collingwood side that looks on the crest of returning back to top form. 

Pies have dropped Murray, lost Fasolo to injury and managed Daniel Wells but they do get Ben Reid back who is crucial to their structures and gives them great flexibility, Levi Greenwood's return could be a huge plus for them, and he may go straight to Macrae first up in a lockdown run-with role. 

The Bulldogs have launched an all-out assault on Operation: Kick Straight by recalling versatile lead-up forward Tory Dickson and handing a debut to former Lion Josh Schache who has been in good form in the VFL. Roarke Smith makes his return as well. 

A statement was made by the Dogs at selection with Dunkley, Wallis and Webb all omitted so expect good energy from the Bulldogs early. 

Stats Insider has the Magpies winning this game by 13 points 92-79. This looks about right. There is a scenario where Collingwood kicks clear second half on the back of some tired Bulldogs legs after that wet game last Friday in Adelaide, but I certainly can see the Dogs staying in it especially if they kick straight. 

Let's find out whether there is any value about.

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model the Magpies are winning 64% of games which makes the Bulldogs the very slight value play in the H2H market at $3.

I'm steering clear of the Dogs though, happy to take the $1.42 for Collingwood who had a pretty soft kill last Saturday against the Saints at this ground. The Bulldogs final score seems to be dictated by their first few set shots - torrential rain or not, 2.14 last week doesn't inspire much confidence. 

Here's the bottom line at the spread - if the Bulldogs kick straight they will cover this line. When they are getting reward for effort the Doggies are very tough to shake and they certainly have the midfield talent to go with Collingwood here. 

I'm really looking forward to seeing how Collingwood approach this game, I expect them to treat the Dogs like flag favourites and put in a really polished four-quarter performance for a strong win. Having said that, the -18.5pt Line is tough to have though with the variable that the Bulldogs could conquer their yips. 

Stats Insider has the Total Points market almost bang on with the models expecting a total score of 170.25 meaning that the (very slight) value bet here is to take the Under with an edge of -1.23%.

Again, in a game where one team is just as likely to shank it left into row 10 as they are to slot it (I'm looking at you Lachie Hunter!) it's hard to have confidence in the game points. 

I'd lean Unders though with the pressure I expect from both midfields. 

No bets from SI first up for Round 10 which I think is a smart play. Really hard to go into a Dogs game with confidence. I like the Magpies in the H2H market best. That $1.42 is high enough to have a positive impact on multiples (*cough* Eagles Line into Kangas H2H!) or to take on its own to build a Saturday bank. 

Magpies into the Unders for optimal value. Collingwood by 20+.