Footy Forensics - Bulldogs v Kangaroos

At first look many will think it is a case of 'no Macrae, no Wood, no chance' for the Bulldogs against the Kangaroos at Etihad tonight, but a closer inspection does reveal plenty of value about for punters keen on the Dogs.

Losing your most prolific ball winning (and tackling) midfielder as well as your gun backman and captain would cause markets to turn against most sides and that's what has happened here with North Melbourne strong favourites to win and win well. 

Hearing North sing the song at the end of the game may be a foregone conclusions but that doesn't mean there is not still great value on offer. 

North have dropped Billy Hartung after a game to forget against the Cats two weeks ago. Youngster Cam Zurhaar has also been omitted. Nathan Hrovat and Jed Anderson return. 

The Bulldogs have lost plenty of talent this week, but they have also got some troops back who can really help them hold the Kangas here. 

Macrae, Wood and Webb are all out injured whilst Biggs has been (rightly) omitted for not being able to kick a sherrin or make decisions properly (but mainly the first one). 

Into the side comes experienced backmen Dale Morris and Marcus Adams whilst Josh Dunkley and Aaron Naughton return to provide some grunt and run respectively to compensate for the loss of Macrae. 

With Naughton and Adams returning to join Cordy in the backline the Bulldogs will likely use Trengove in the ruck a lot more tonight. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run, the Stats Insider model has North winning 71% of games, which makes the Bulldogs quite solid value at the $4.50 H2H quote. 

This is a really tricky game because so much could go right for North here, from Goldstien having a really dominant game against Boyd/Trengove and giving mids like Higgins first use, to players like Jacobs and Anderson shutting down the Dogs tasked to step into Macrae's shoes like Toby McLean, Lachie Hunter or even JJ or Hayden Crozier off half back. 

Majak Daw could be dominant down back for the Kangas with not a lot of tall timber to worry about in that Bulldogs forward line, whilst Ben Brown is every chance to wreak havok on that restructured Bulldogs back six. 

Conversely though, the Bulldogs could be buoyed by the return of two very solid, experienced defenders in Morris and Adams and collectively lift in the midfield in Macrae's absence. 

Stats Insider is calculating the latter.

At just under six goals, that +29.5pt Line for the Bulldogs has them winning 61% of games according to the SI simulations. That is high enough for a 'star' or recommended bet. 

The trouble with picking the Bulldogs to not get flogged here is that they have struggled mightily to kick goals. Their collective set shots this season have been horrendous and against a side like North with Tarrant, Daw and Thompson in the backline I can't see many Bulldogs forwards taking many contested grabs close to goal in the corridor. 

This is the bet of the game for mine, taking the Unders in a match between two sides who rarely kick big scores. 

I expect the Kangaroos to be incredibly miserly with hat they give the Bulldogs and with Adams and Morris returning, that back six for the Doggies does look capable holding North to under 100. 

 As you can see Stats Insider is liking the Dogs to hold the +29.5pt Line they have been given. I don't share the models' confidence just given the Bulldogs kicking for goal - they were 2.14 last week at one stage and that was not a rare sight for them this season. 

Much prefer the Unders. North are another side who are more than capable of undoing all their good lead up work and spraying a set shot out of bounds so if there is at all any heat on the footy - and I believe both teams will be quite desperate for a win here - then the misses will come. 

171.5pts is a lot of behinds!

North by 25.

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