Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Hawks

Is Hawthorn due for a polished, four-quarter performance after two weeks of mediocrity or is their current form the new normal for this once-great team? 

Punters can be fairly sure of what they will get from the Western Bulldogs but the Hawks are the great unknown tonight at Etihad in what looks to be a fast-paced yet low-scoring affair. 

Stats Insider likes the Hawks to win tonight by 19 points but that will mean a lift in intensity and polish after a fortnight of fumbly, un-Hawthorn like footy. 

Good start for the mighty fightings with Jack Gunston being recalled. His skill and ability to play multiple important roles is crucial to the Hawks. Miles also comes in with O'Brien and Langford making way. Big net win. 

For the Doggies whose win over the Cats last Friday looks great form given hat Geelong did in Sydney Thursday, Lin Jong and Bailey Williams are both out injured, Shane Biggs and Caleb Daniel return. Dogs will miss Williams big time.

Under the roof at Etihad so no weather to worry about whatsoever.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Hawthorn are winning 71% of games which makes them the slight value play at the $1.45 mark in the H2H market. 

The Bulldogs out-worked Geelong last week and will bring that effort again but Hawthorn's best is still more than good enough here. Trouble is we are just not seeing it regularly enough to have complete confidence.

That $1.45 looks very thin on Hawthorn's last two weeks so looking elsewhere for more value/safety. 

Slight edge for the Hawks identified by the model at the line with the Hawks winning 53% of games at the -15.5pt mark. 

A fit Jack Gunston makes the world of difference though to the way Hawthorn are able to impact the scoreboard as well as stem the opposition across half back. 

I am expecting a fumble-free Hawks tonight but taking them at the Line is too risky against a Dogs side with their tails up who have learnt how to move the footy inside 50. The market looks bang on to me. The search continues. 

Here is where the bet is for mine. The Dogs have been much more effective at repelling attacking raids since the returns of Morris and Adams. They look settled down back and will match up well on the Hawks with Trengove going to Ceglar and Adams to Roughead most likely. 

Likewise, the Hawks half-back line of Sicily and possibly Gunston look very capable of intercepting majority of the Bulldogs forays forward. 

Given what the Bombers and Kangaroos produced at Etihad last Sunday the Total for this game has been given a decent bump up to 172.5 which I think is a little high. 

The model agrees, spotting a nice edge (Under 57%). 

No massive value jumping out of the page here but I am aligned with the model again tonight, expecting a good 3-4 goal win from the Hawks in a low-scorer. 

Best value bet looks the Under. 

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