Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Demons

A dominant ruck, actual forwards who can kick straight, a milestone man - you can pick any number of reasons why the Demons will dominate the Dogs here. 

Any punters who think the Dees are due an off game or due perhaps to slip back into old habits will be sorely disappointed. Melbourne have turned a collective corner and will be absolutely primed from the first bounce in this game thanks to Nathan Jones playing his 250th game. 

Dogs welcome back veteran defender Dale Morris and have recalled Mitch Honeychurch but have lost Zaine Cordy and Bailey Dale to injury. Dees unchanged in another ominous sign. 

So just how does Stats Insider see this game going?

It's the Dees by 27 according to SI but this assumes the Dogs will kick straight and I'm also not sure it is factoring in the return to top form of Jake Lever. 

Between Gawn's dominance in the middle and Lever's intercepting down back, I can't see how the Bulldogs can gain any ascendancy whatsoever. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Melbourne are winning this game 78% of the time. This may make the Dogs the slight value play at the H2H market but it will be a very brave punter to take the Dogs here. I'm going nowhere near them. 

That $1.20 H2H for the Dees is safe and can add slight value to multipliers, but I think there is much better value in other markets in this game. 

There is value here, but I'm going against SI at the Line here which is quite rare for me. Punters that took our early week advice and jumped on the Dees at -23.5pts will be laughing but for those who are yet to get on, the -33.5pt Line is still value. 

The Dogs get Morris back but he is playing his first game of the year and they have lost Cordy down back who has been solid. Melbourne will be on song from the opening bounce and the fact is Gawn can (and will) do what he likes here sans any recognised ruckman for the Dogs. 

Expect that Line is covered by halftime, if not before. 

Back in agreement with the SI model in the Totals. Dogs couldn't hit the backside of a barn from set shots in 2018. As I've argued above, the Western Bulldogs will struggle mightily to hit the scoreboard, I wouldn't be surprised to see their score sub 50 for the game which allows the Dees to go crazy and still not overtake that huge 180.5pt Totals mark. 

Despite the model saying 'no bet', I am very bullish about the Demons at the Line this week. The Line/Under double up presents great value for those chasing a little better odds. 

The Demons have learned how to be ruthless and can put heavy scoreboard pressure on teams almost at will. With the difficulty the Dogs will have scoring in this game I expect Melbourne to be on track for yet another really dominant win. 

Dees by 50+. 

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