Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Cats

Last week we saw what the beleaguered Bulldogs were capable of, nearly pulling off a big upset win over North Melbourne - tonight we find out what Geelong are truly capable of against a side they should comprehensively flog under the roof at Etihad. 

Adams and Morris have added a steel to the Bulldogs defence whilst the absence of Macrae has resulted in a collective lift from several Bulldogs onballers. They even kicked fairly straight last week! 

This week they play a side fresh off the bye, a side who pulled the trigger and went bang against North two weeks ago to bury the Kangaroos in a dominant second half drubbing. 

Will the North form lines translate into a big Geelong victory or will the Doggies dig in two weeks running? Let's check out what the model is predicting...

Stats Insider has Geelong winning fairly comfortably, a 28 point victory 90-62. That prediction is right on the +30.5pt spread. 

The Bulldogs get Suckling back which is big but lose Daniel and have dropped Honeychurch. How Suckling and Crozier fit into that half-back line will be very interesting to see play out because Crozier has been their best over the last two weeks.

Geelong gets two very experienced heads back in with Cam Guthrie and Harry Taylor returning for fringe first graders Gregson and the younger of the two Guthrie's. 

Expect Taylor to play defence which could release Blicavs to play more midfield - Taylor's return gives coach Chris Scott plenty of options structurally.

As we saw last night conditions will be perfect for fast footy under the roof at Etihad. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by Stats Insider, the Cats are winning 80% of them, making the Bulldogs ever-so-slight value at the $5.50 quote in the H2H market. No value here for those, myself included, who think it will be just a case of 'Cats by how much'.

I think the +30.5 will attract a lot of people to the Bulldogs after their performance last week but for mine, the Cats to hold that Line is the bet of the game. 

The Cats won't give up too many and have plenty in them, I can see this game blowing out and Geelong really putting their foot on the throat of what is a very young Bulldogs side. 

The bottom 6-7 for the Dogs are all very inexperienced.

Add to that the fact that Geelong, for the first time this season, actually have a ruck advantage with Stanley up against Boyd, and it is easy to see that powerhouse Geelong midfield brigade having big games tonight. 

The SI model has identified some slight value about the Unders but for mine, this market is bang on and presents zero value. Expect the Cats will be pushing that three-figure mark come the end of the game but the wildcard is the Bulldogs and how efficient they are forward of centre / how accurate they are in front of goals. 

Too many variables to have any confidence so I'm steering clear of this market. 

As you can see SI was unable to find any value in this game. According to the model the biggest edge/value on offer is at the Line (Dogs +30.5pts (54%)) but I am going against that one tonight and backing in a much more experienced Geelong side. 

Cats are fresh and have everything to play for whilst the Dogs had their hearts ripped open yet again last week.

If not now for Geelong, then it's really never. After last night's blockbuster, Geelong will want to send a message of their own to the competition. 

Geelong 40+. 

We are currently providing free predictions for every AFL game when you make a Stats Insider account. Sign up now to get free access to everything.