Footy Forensics - Bulldogs v Blues

It makes me feel slightly sick even typing it let alone saying it, but Carlton can win this game.

The Bulldogs have a plethora of problems from their dysfunctional forward line to their lack of key defense but the biggest issue they face is how much effort will they bring.

If (stress, IF) they front up they can and probably will win but Carlton are not the easy-beats that the odds suggest in this game.

In fact the Blues look like the value play.

To the intangibles:

• Bulldogs Ins/Outs: Lose Tory Dickson who has looked their best forward but gain Hunter, Crozier and Bailey Williams. Net gain overall but a loss for their forward line.
• Blues Ins/Outs: Marchbank returns as does Matthew Kennedy for a big net gain for Carlton (Garlett, Lamb out).
• Carlton's weaknesses cannot be as exposed by the Western Bulldogs as they can other teams. The Dogs don't have a dominant ruckman who can give a deep midfield first use, nor do they have experienced key defenders to contain Carlton's key forwards.
• The Bulldogs also seldom place the opposition under intense scoreboard pressure which often results in a close game.
• Carlton's young key position forwards are likely to find this much easier going with a distinct lack size down back for the Dogs which means when Carlton do surge forward they will likely impact the scoreboard.
• Weather a non-issue at Etihad Stadium

Let's check out what the Stats are saying. Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, the Bulldogs are winning 65% of games. 

For a team with no confidence in front of goal, $1.43 is a little short coming up against a team that will be absolutely desperate for a win in Carlton.

The Blues are only marginally better value at the $2.90 quote, watch to see if they blow out past that $3 mark. Expect they will drift late which increases their H2H value.

Starting to find a little more value at the Line with the Blues winning 54% of games when given the +16.5pt start according to the Stats Insider model.

I expect this game to be a close one come final siren so having a near three-goal buffer is a solid play.

Best value in this game can be found at the Over/Under market.

Neither team are good at scoring, and both sides will be desperate for a win, that tells me it's a night for the Unders.

The Stats Insider analysis is expecting a total score of 160.75 meaning that the value bet here is to take the Under with an edge of 11.69%.

As you can see from the three 'No Bets' in the SI Punting Predictions, this game does not offer much in the way of value nor certainty.

I'll be taking Carlton with the Line and am most confident about taking the Unders, but in a game where both sides are inconsistent, it is difficult to go into tonight's match with a huge amount of confidence.

Blues by a kick.