Footy Forensics: Broncos v Sharks

The Broncos have a chance to secure their place in September footy in their third-consecutive home game on Thursday night.

They smashed the pants off the Panthers with a 50-18 win last week, but are preparing to face a consistently tough opponent in the Sharks in this one. 

With their three-game winning streak overshadowed by a forward pass in Round 17 and a Bunker boilover in Round 19, the Sharks are flying under the radar of many NRL punters.

Not the Stats Insider Model, though.

Through 10,000 simulations of the match, the Model has tipped a quintessential Sharks win.

Cronulla loves to win games by the skin of their teeth and getting them at $2.05 to win in what is expected to be a close game is a strong option.

Of all the teams in the NRL with a winning record in 2018, the Sharks have the lowest average margin of victory at just 8.8 points.

Regardless of the margin of victory, the Model likes the Sharks to win in 53% of simulated matches.

Confidence in the Sharks has a lot to do with the yardage they generate through the middle.

The Sharks run for 1,513 running metres per game and have five players in the top 50 for metres gained per game: Aaron Woods (12th - 155.1m), Valentine Holmes (25th - 139m), Andrew Fifita (26th - 139m), Paul Gallen (36th - 134.9m) and Edrick Lee (47th - 128.6m).

The Broncos, on the other hand, only have two players inside the top 50 with Matt Lodge the only forward (42nd - 129.9m) alongside Corey Oates (22nd - 142.7m).

It's in the centre third the Sharks look to engage in the arm-wrestle, and it's where they find ways to win so many of those close games.

However, the Broncos winning 47% of games at $1.80 can't be ignored.

If they can get above and beyond their 1,470 average running metres per game, they're a brilliant chance at taking the two points. In the eight times they've run for more than their current season average, the Broncos have won seven of them.

Much of this game is expected to be played in between the two 20-metre lines which lends itself to the small 1.5 Line currently offered.

The Broncos are slight -1.5 favourites at the time of writing, but the Model likes the Underdog.

No side has competed in more 'close games' than Cronulla's nine according to NRL.com. They've also covered the spread in five of the eight games they've entered getting a head start.

The worry around the Sharks H2H is the fact the Broncos have won just over 64% of their games at Suncorp since 1988. It's a genuine fortress and one that should only get stronger after adding 50 points to the tally last Friday. 

Taking the +1.5 points in case it's close is the safer route to go if you're inclined to side with the visitors.

Leaning further towards the idea this one will be tight, the Model likes the Under at 40 points in 55% in the 10,000 simulations. 

Neither side appears in the conversation of elite attacking teams with the Broncos averaging 21.3 points (6th) and Sharks slightly behind with 20.2 points per game (8th).

With the likelihood this game takes a while to see its first scorer as both sides feel each other out in the middle, getting up to and past 40 points seems a stretch.

It's not a market the Model identifies as carrying any value.

The Sharks at the +1.5 Line is where the Model is pointed.

With their history as Underdogs and in close games in general, it's a good way to go.

However, as mentioned, the Broncos are a force at home. They're coming into form and have a habit of coming right at this time of the year. Brisbane's $1.80 to win deserves a decent look too.

We are currently providing free predictions for every NRL game when you make a Stats Insider account. Sign up now to get free access to everything.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter!