Footy Forensics: Bombers v Swans
Last updated: Jul 27, 2018, 1:08AM | Published: Jul 26, 2018, 10:14PM
Friday Night Footy has been the trickiest game of the season for punters so far in 2018 and with the Bombers hosting the Swans at Etihad we have two sides that have been particularly tough to get a bead on.
Some punters will no doubt throw a few darts, others may attempt to signal Batman - thankfully Stats Insider subscribers need not stress because the model has all angles covered tonight.
There is value about the Swans with the model simulating an upset (albeit a very close upset) two-point victory for the visitors 83-81.
If we take a look at the Value Summary below, the model has identified a solid 6% edge at the spread for the Swans +3.5 and interestingly has also simulated a rare Under edge at what has been a fast and free-flowing Etihad track this season.
Head to the Match Page for a more in-depth look at the Value Summary and Prediction Detail for tonight's game.
News at selection was mixed for the Bombers with Stringer returning to replace the injured McKernan who has provided plenty up forward for them in recent weeks. Stringer can play out of the square but is by no means the tall target they would want down there so the game plan for the Dons going inside fifty will need to be adjusted tonight against the Swans.
For the Swans, Heath Grundy will be a most welcome return. It was bordering on lairising that he was left out of last weeks loss to the Gold Coast. His inclusion is huge for Sydney and certainly helps the case for Under tonight.
In the H2H market, a very slight edge for the Swans at that outsider's price looks the play with the model wanting not much to do with the Bombers at their current market price.
This is where we start to see a little more value identified. Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model the Swans are winning 56% of games with that +3.5pt start whilst 53% of games simulated were 'Under' the Total Points market of 167.5pts.
Without McKernan, the Bombers have no traditional key forward which not only impacts their ability to hit the scoreboard but also helps the Swans key defenders in Grundy and Rampe to be able to control the ball in the air much better.
Popular opinion heading into this game is that the Swans will bounce back but after the way Sydney lost to the Suns last week markets (and punters) are reluctant to get behind the bloods against a dangerous Essendon side who will be equally desperate.
Both sides have so much to play for - the Swans sit in 4th but could, incredibly, slip as low as 9th if they lose tonight whilst the Bombers are in must-win territory if they want to play finals. Expect to see a very hot footy for the majority of the match.
The Swans will be hurting big time after losing to the Suns in the fashion they did last week.
With Essendon having no clear matchup for Franklin and a makeshift key forward line against a desperate Swans defence it is easy to get behind the model tonight for a low-scoring Swans victory.
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