Footy Forensics: Blues v Magpies
Last updated: Apr 30, 2018, 2:34AM | Published: Apr 27, 2018, 12:21AM
Friday night, MCG, Magpies v Blues – they don’t get much bigger than this and the stakes could not be higher for both teams.
On Saturday morning one of these two great clubs will be 0-3 to start the season so straight away you can guarantee this will be no shootout – the pressure around the footy will be extreme not just in the middle but all over the ground.
The Intangibles;
Pies form line has been solid and I’d argue much better than Carlton’s to start the season but Collingwood’s forward line is the perfect shape and size for Carlton to exploit.
While Carlton’s R1 loss to Richmond seemed honourable, their capitulation last week to a Gold Coast team that few expected to win has turned the pressure dial back up a few notches on the Blues.
Make no mistake the Magpies are expected to win this and that kind of thinking brings its own pressure.
Team news and a big in for Carlton with Kreuzer coming back into the ruck which frees up Casboult to return to the forward line giving the team much better structure.
Ben Reid a big inclusion for the Pies, Cox back in as well. Both players (for different reasons) will help keep this game tight).
Weather wise its clear skies expected.
Now that we have a sense of the factors in play it’s time to see what the SI Model thinks of all this.
From the 10,000 simulations run, the Stats Insider Model predicts Collingwood to win 60% of the time which makes the Blues H2H price of $2.40 the sharp play tonight in this market.
Personally, I’ve tipped the Blues to win so I do like the $2.40, but in a game I think will come down to a kick or two I’m inclined to look elsewhere for a bit of safety to kick start the weekend bankroll.
The Line market is where we can really start to find some value with Carlton getting +10.5pts.
At this Line the SI Model predicts the Blues will hold the line 54% of the time.
The best bet of the game for mine (and the safest according to SI simulations) is to take the Unders in the Total Game Points Market.
Stats Insider is predicting a total score of 156pts, giving an Unders bet a 21.68% edge at the 173.5pt Market.
There you have it, everything the SI simulations have predicted to happen reinforces my thoughts that neither side is likely to kick away past that 3-4 goal mark throughout the game.
This always dries up scoring in the last quarter and invariably tends to make the final score very close.
