Falcons vs Commanders Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 4, 2025
Last updated: Sep 28, 2025, 5:01PM | Published: Sep 21, 2025, 4:01AM
The Atlanta Falcons will sqaure off with the Washington Commanders in NFL Week 4 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday, beginning at 3:00am AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Falcons vs Commanders game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Atlanta vs Washington NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Falcons a 60% chance of defeating the Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Falcons vs Commanders: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium are listed here:
- Head to Head: Falcons $1.64, Commanders $2.30
- Line: Falcons -2.5 ($1.91), Commanders +2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 43.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Falcons at $1.64 and the Commanders at $2.30.
The Falcons are listed as 2.5-point favourites against the Commanders, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Commanders (+2.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 43.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the bookies have got it right and both the Falcons and the Commanders have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 43.5-point over/under is expected to go over 56% of the time.
Falcons vs Commanders: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Atlanta at $1.64 with Bet365
- Line: Commanders +2.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 43.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Falcons vs Commanders best bets are based on detailed modelling and betting intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
Falcons vs Commanders: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Falcons vs Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 4 is the Falcons winning 23-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Atlanta vs Washington game in Week 4, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
For in-depth analysis from US experts,, check out Dimers' detailed Falcons vs Commanders prediction.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Falcons vs Commanders: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs Commanders? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is the most likely player to score the first TD in Falcons vs Commanders.
Robinson has an 18.5% chance of scoring the first TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons RB has a 56.9% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for the complete list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Falcons First TD Tips
- Bijan Robinson: 18.5% probability
- Drake London: 8.3% probability
- Tyler Allgeier: 5.7% probability
- Darnell Mooney: 5.6% probability
- Kyle Pitts: 4.6% probability
Commanders First TD Tips
- Deebo Samuel: 7.7% probability
- Chris Rodriguez: 7.5% probability
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 6.0% probability
- Zach Ertz: 5.5% probability
- Jeremy McNichols: 4.5% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Falcons Anytime TD Tips
- Bijan Robinson: 56.9% probability
- Drake London: 31.4% probability
- Tyler Allgeier: 22.9% probability
- Darnell Mooney: 22.7% probability
- Kyle Pitts: 19.1% probability
Commanders Anytime TD Tips
- Deebo Samuel: 35.4% probability
- Chris Rodriguez: 34.5% probability
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 28.8% probability
- Zach Ertz: 26.6% probability
- Jeremy McNichols: 22.7% probability
Falcons-Commanders Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 229 passing yards. The Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 209 yards.
Falcons Starting QB
- Michael Penix: 229 projected passing yards
Commanders Starting QB
- Marcus Mariota: 209 projected passing yards
Falcons Rushing Yards
- Bijan Robinson: 82 projected yards
- Tyler Allgeier: 34 projected yards
- Michael Penix: 9 projected yards
Commanders Rushing Yards
- Marcus Mariota: 37 projected yards
- Chris Rodriguez: 37 projected yards
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 32 projected yards
Falcons Receiving Yards
- Drake London: 68 projected yards
- Darnell Mooney: 50 projected yards
- Kyle Pitts: 41 projected yards
- Bijan Robinson: 29 projected yards
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 24 projected yards
Commanders Receiving Yards
- Deebo Samuel: 57 projected yards
- Zach Ertz: 42 projected yards
- Chris Moore: 29 projected yards
- Luke McCaffrey: 28 projected yards
- Jaylin Lane: 26 projected yards
Remember, our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting predictions before the Atlanta vs Washington game.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Falcons vs Commanders: Week 4 Essential Details
The NFL Week 4 game between the Falcons and Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00am AEST on Monday.
- Teams: Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders
- Date: Monday 29 September 2025
- Time: 3:00am AEST
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Atlanta vs Washington predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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