Falcons vs Bills Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 6, 2025
Last updated: Oct 10, 2025, 8:02PM | Published: Oct 6, 2025, 4:31AM
The Atlanta Falcons will take on the favoured Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 6 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Tuesday, beginning at 10:15am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Falcons vs Bills game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Atlanta vs Buffalo NFL game 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 63% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season.
Falcons vs Bills: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Tuesday's NFL game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Falcons $2.90, Bills $1.43
- Line: Falcons +4.5 ($1.91), Bills -4.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 50 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Falcons at $2.90 and the Bills at $1.43.
The Falcons are listed as 4.5-point underdogs against the Bills, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Bills (-4.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 50 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Falcons (+4.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 50-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
Falcons vs Bills: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Atlanta at $2.90 with Bet365
- Line: Falcons +4.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 50 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Falcons vs Bills betting tips are based on world-class simulations and gambling intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice around the clock.
While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Falcons to win is our preferred option because of the 2.7% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a sports bettor.
Falcons vs Bills: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Falcons vs Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 6 is the Bills winning 26-22.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Atlanta vs Buffalo game in Week 6, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Falcons vs Bills: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Falcons vs Bills? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is the most likely player to score the first TD in Falcons vs Bills.
Robinson has a 14.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons RB has a 55.8% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Falcons First TD Tips
- Bijan Robinson: 14.1% probability
- Drake London: 6.8% probability
- Tyler Allgeier: 5.6% probability
- Darnell Mooney: 4.8% probability
- Kyle Pitts: 4.5% probability
Bills First TD Tips
- James Cook: 12.2% probability
- Josh Allen: 8.7% probability
- Keon Coleman: 5.3% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 4.7% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 4.4% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Falcons Anytime TD Tips
- Bijan Robinson: 55.8% probability
- Drake London: 32.7% probability
- Tyler Allgeier: 27.8% probability
- Darnell Mooney: 24.3% probability
- Kyle Pitts: 22.8% probability
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- James Cook: 57.8% probability
- Josh Allen: 46.0% probability
- Keon Coleman: 31.3% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 28.1% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 26.6% probability
Falcons-Bills Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 233 passing yards. The Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 236 yards.
Falcons Starting QB
- Michael Penix: 233 projected passing yards
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 236 projected passing yards
Falcons Rushing Yards
- Bijan Robinson: 80 projected yards
- Tyler Allgeier: 34 projected yards
- Michael Penix: 11 projected yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 77 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 37 projected yards
- Ray Davis: 25 projected yards
Falcons Receiving Yards
- Drake London: 72 projected yards
- Darnell Mooney: 51 projected yards
- Kyle Pitts: 42 projected yards
- Bijan Robinson: 33 projected yards
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 23 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Khalil Shakir: 53 projected yards
- Keon Coleman: 45 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 42 projected yards
- Joshua Palmer: 26 projected yards
- James Cook: 19 projected yards
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this article for the latest betting predictions before the Atlanta vs Buffalo game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips on every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Falcons vs Bills: Week 6 Essential Details
The NFL Week 6 game between the Falcons and Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 10:15am AEDT on Tuesday.
- Teams: Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills
- Date: Tuesday 14 October 2025
- Time: 10:15am AEDT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Atlanta vs Buffalo predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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