Falcons vs Bills Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 6, 2025
Last updated: Oct 13, 2025, 11:15PM | Published: Oct 6, 2025, 4:31AM
The Atlanta Falcons will sqaure off with the favoured Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 6 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Tuesday, beginning at 10:15am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Falcons vs Bills game, along with the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Tuesday's Atlanta vs Buffalo NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 60% chance of beating the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Falcons vs Bills: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Tuesday's NFL game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium are listed here:
- Head to Head: Falcons $2.70, Bills $1.49
- Line: Falcons +3.5 ($1.91), Bills -3.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 49.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Falcons at $2.70 and the Bills at $1.49.
The Falcons are 3.5-point underdogs against the Bills, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Bills (-3.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 49.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Falcons (+3.5) are predicted to cover the line 59% of the time, while the 49.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Falcons vs Bills: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Atlanta at $2.70 with Bet365
- Line: Falcons +3.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 49.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, you know it's one of our best bets for today across any sport.
Stats Insider's Falcons vs Bills betting tips are based on detailed modelling and betting intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice every time.
While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Falcons to win is our preferred option due to the 2.8% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term profitability.
Falcons vs Bills: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Falcons vs Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 6 is the Bills winning 26-23.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Atlanta vs Buffalo game in Week 6, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
Get expert analysis from the US with Dimers' in-depth Falcons vs Bills prediction.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Falcons vs Bills: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs Bills? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is the most likely player to score the first TD in Falcons vs Bills.
Robinson has a 15.7% chance of scoring the first TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons RB has a 56.3% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Falcons First TD Tips
- Bijan Robinson: 15.7% probability
- Drake London: 7.5% probability
- Tyler Allgeier: 6.4% probability
- Kyle Pitts: 4.7% probability
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 2.7% probability
Bills First TD Tips
- James Cook: 11.8% probability
- Josh Allen: 8.3% probability
- Keon Coleman: 5.4% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 4.9% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 4.8% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Falcons Anytime TD Tips
- Bijan Robinson: 56.3% probability
- Drake London: 32.6% probability
- Tyler Allgeier: 28.7% probability
- Kyle Pitts: 22.1% probability
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 13.5% probability
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- James Cook: 56.7% probability
- Josh Allen: 44.4% probability
- Keon Coleman: 31.7% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 29.3% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 28.9% probability
Falcons-Bills Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 235 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 238 yards.
Falcons Starting QB
- Michael Penix: 235 projected passing yards
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 238 projected passing yards
Falcons Rushing Yards
- Bijan Robinson: 78 projected yards
- Tyler Allgeier: 36 projected yards
- Michael Penix: 11 projected yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 77 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 37 projected yards
- Ray Davis: 25 projected yards
Falcons Receiving Yards
- Drake London: 80 projected yards
- Kyle Pitts: 44 projected yards
- Bijan Robinson: 36 projected yards
- Casey Washington: 36 projected yards
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 26 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Khalil Shakir: 56 projected yards
- Keon Coleman: 48 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 42 projected yards
- Dawson Knox: 28 projected yards
- Joshua Palmer: 28 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Atlanta vs Buffalo match-up.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Falcons vs Bills: Week 6 Essential Details
The NFL Week 6 game between the Falcons and Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to commence at 10:15am AEDT on Tuesday.
- Teams: Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills
- Date: Tuesday 14 October 2025
- Time: 10:15am AEDT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Atlanta vs Buffalo predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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