Essendon vs Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2026
Last updated: Apr 7, 2026, 4:33AM | Published: Apr 6, 2026, 6:30AM
Essendon will sqaure off with the favoured Melbourne in AFL Round 5 action at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, beginning at 1:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Essendon vs Melbourne game, along with the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Saturday's Essendon vs Melbourne AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Demons a 77% chance of beating the Bombers in Round 5 of the 2026 AFL season.
Essendon vs Melbourne: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are listed below:
- Head to Head: Essendon $4.60, Melbourne $1.20
- Line: Essendon +28.5 ($1.91), Melbourne -28.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 189.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Essendon at $4.60 and Melbourne at $1.20.
The Bombers are 28.5-point underdogs against the Demons, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Demons (-28.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 189.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Bombers (+28.5) are predicted to cover the line 56% of the time, while the 189.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 55% of the time.
Essendon vs Melbourne: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Essendon at $4.60 with Bet365
- Line: Essendon +28.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 189.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Essendon vs Melbourne best bets are based on complex modelling and wagering expertise to give you the best possible advice every day of the year.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our recommended option due to the 1.3% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term success as a punter.
Essendon vs Melbourne: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Essendon vs Melbourne at Adelaide Oval on Saturday is Melbourne winning 105-81.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Essendon vs Melbourne match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting predictions before the Essendon vs Melbourne game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Essendon vs Melbourne: Essential Details
The AFL Round 5 clash between the Bombers and Demons at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to begin at 1:15pm AEST on Saturday.
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Essendon vs Melbourne predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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