Essendon vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2026

Essendon will take on the favoured Hawthorn in AFL Round 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 7:40pm AEDT.

This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Essendon vs Hawthorn game, plus the latest betting odds.

Who Will Win?

Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Friday's Essendon vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Hawks an 83% chance of beating the Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Essendon vs Hawthorn: Odds

The current Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:

• Head to Head: Essendon $5.50, Hawthorn $1.15
• Line: Essendon +31.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn -31.5 ($1.91)
• Total (Over/Under 182.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Essendon at $5.50 and Hawthorn at $1.15.

The Bombers are listed as 31.5-point underdogs against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.

For the favourite Hawks (-31.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 182.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (-31.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 182.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Essendon vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips

• Head to Head: Essendon at $5.50 with Bet365
• Line: Hawthorn -31.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
• Total Points: Under 182.5 at $1.91 with Bet365

Stats Insider's Essendon vs Hawthorn best bets are based on market-leading modelling and betting experience to provide you with the best possible advice around the clock.

While the Hawks have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our recommended option due to the edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.

Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.

Essendon vs Hawthorn: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Essendon vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Friday is Hawthorn winning 107-74.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Essendon vs Hawthorn match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and free tips.

Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the Essendon vs Hawthorn match.

As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Essendon vs Hawthorn: Essential Details

The AFL Round 1 clash between the Bombers and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEDT on Friday.

• Teams: Essendon vs Hawthorn
• Date: Friday 13 March 2026
• Time: 7:40pm AEDT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

Our Essendon vs Hawthorn predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.

If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

More on the AFL

Stats Insider is your home for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, predictions for every AFL game, and futures odds for the AFL.