Essendon vs Brisbane Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 8, 2026
Last updated: May 2, 2026, 2:33AM | Published: Apr 26, 2026, 10:33AM
Essendon will take on the favoured Brisbane in AFL Round 8 action at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 12:35pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Essendon vs Brisbane game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Saturday's Essendon vs Brisbane AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Lions an 89% chance of defeating the Bombers in Round 8 of the 2026 AFL season.
Essendon vs Brisbane: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Essendon $9.50, Brisbane $1.06
- Line: Essendon +46.5 ($1.91), Brisbane -46.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 190.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Essendon at $9.50 and Brisbane at $1.06.
The Bombers are listed as 46.5-point underdogs against the Lions, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Lions (-46.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 190.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Bombers (+46.5) are predicted to cover the line 56% of the time, while the 190.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 53% of the time.
Essendon vs Brisbane: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Essendon at $9.50 with Bet365
- Line: Essendon +46.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 190.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Essendon vs Brisbane predictions are based on world-class modelling and gambling experience to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Lions have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our preferred option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is pivotal to being profitable in the long run.
Essendon vs Brisbane: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Essendon vs Brisbane at Marvel Stadium on Saturday is Brisbane winning 115-73.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Essendon vs Brisbane match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Essendon vs Brisbane: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Essendon vs Brisbane goalscorer tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Brisbane's Logan Morris is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Essendon vs Brisbane.
Morris has an 8.1% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Lions star has a 93.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 6.5% probability
- Peter Wright: 3.9% probability
- Thomas Edwards: 3.9% probability
- Dyson Sharp: 3.4% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 3.1% probability
Brisbane
- Logan Morris: 8.1% probability
- Zac Bailey: 8.1% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 7.0% probability
- Kai Lohmann: 6.5% probability
- Cam Rayner: 5.7% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 88.2% probability
- Peter Wright: 71.5% probability
- Thomas Edwards: 67.9% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 59.3% probability
- Dyson Sharp: 59.3% probability
Brisbane
- Logan Morris: 93.3% probability
- Zac Bailey: 91.6% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 89.6% probability
- Kai Lohmann: 87.1% probability
- Cam Rayner: 84.0% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this article for the latest betting analysis before the Essendon vs Brisbane game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Essendon vs Brisbane: Essential Details
The AFL Round 8 clash between the Bombers and Lions at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to begin at 12:35pm AEST on Saturday.
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Essendon vs Brisbane predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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