Essendon vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 21, 2026
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026, 6:35AM | Published: Jul 26, 2026, 5:35AM
Essendon will sqaure off with the favoured Adelaide in AFL Round 21 action at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 4:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Essendon vs Adelaide game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Sunday's Essendon vs Adelaide AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Crows an 88% chance of defeating the Bombers in Round 21 of the 2026 AFL season.
Essendon vs Adelaide: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Essendon $7.00, Adelaide $1.10
- Line: Essendon +40.5 ($1.91), Adelaide -40.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 176.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Essendon at $7.00 and Adelaide at $1.10.
The Bombers are 40.5-point underdogs against the Crows, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Crows (-40.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 176.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Bombers (+40.5) are predicted to cover the line 53% of the time, while the 176.5-point over/under is expected to go over 51% of the time.
Essendon vs Adelaide: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Essendon at $7.00 with Bet365
- Line: Essendon +40.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 176.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Essendon vs Adelaide betting tips are based on detailed simulations and gambling intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice around the clock.
While the Crows have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our preferred option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is pivotal to being profitable in the long run.
Essendon vs Adelaide: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Essendon vs Adelaide at Marvel Stadium on Sunday is Adelaide winning 107-69.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Essendon vs Adelaide match on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and free tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Essendon vs Adelaide: Goal Scorers
Searching for Essendon vs Adelaide goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Essendon's Nate Caddy is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Essendon vs Adelaide.
Caddy has an 8.8% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Bombers star has a 94.5% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 8.8% probability
- Peter Wright: 5.5% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 3.1% probability
- Isaac Kako: 3.0% probability
- Rhys Unwin: 2.3% probability
Adelaide
- Josh Rachele: 8.8% probability
- Taylor Walker: 8.3% probability
- Riley Thilthorpe: 6.8% probability
- Ben Keays: 5.6% probability
- Jordan Dawson: 5.4% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 94.5% probability
- Peter Wright: 81.3% probability
- Isaac Kako: 60.4% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 60.4% probability
- Rhys Unwin: 49.7% probability
Adelaide
- Taylor Walker: 90.6% probability
- Josh Rachele: 90.6% probability
- Riley Thilthorpe: 86.2% probability
- Jordan Dawson: 79.9% probability
- Ben Keays: 79.9% probability
Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this article for the latest betting tips before the Essendon vs Adelaide game.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Essendon vs Adelaide: Essential Details
The AFL Round 21 clash between the Bombers and Crows at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:40pm AEST on Sunday.
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Essendon vs Adelaide predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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