EPL Monthly Movement: September

We run our eyes over the EPL futures predictions for another month to assess how your club is faring after the September action, and more importantly, find you some value for your title, top 4 and relegation betting!

MANCHESTER CITY

CURRENT: Title winners: 49.6% / Top 4: 91.0%
END OF LAST MONTH: Title winners: 50.0% / Top 4: 94.2%
PRE-SEASON: Title winners: 47.7% / Top 4: 89.9%

Manchester City continue to roll on as expected, dropping only two points so far this season (at Wolves) and keeping four clean sheets along the way. Winning 47% of futures simulations at the start of the season, they have slightly solidified their favouritism, now a 49.6% chance of going back-to-back. No doubt that the trip to Liverpool (who they have lost three in a row against) this coming weekend will be a vital opportunity for them to break away from the peloton, as they won’t be dropping many points this season. Our SI model has them rated as a $2.00 chance for the title (for a 100% market with no house edge), so the $1.70 on offer is of no value.

LIVERPOOL

CURRENT: Title winners: 34.6% / Top 4: 94.5%
END OF LAST MONTH: Title winners: 25.2% / Top 4: 87.9%
PRE-SEASON: Title winners: 20.9% / Top 4: 78.8%

The Reds were a clear second-most likely to win the title at the start of the season and they have well and truly cemented their status as the main challengers to City. They fought well away to Chelsea, and for all the talk about that famous front three, it’s also worth noting they’ve conceded just three goals all season. With games against bottom-two Huddersfield and Cardiff to follow their clash with City, they’ll almost certainly be topping the table at the end of the month if they can secure even just one point against Guardiola’s troops this weekend. They’ll be confident of all three given they’ve won four on the trot against City at Anfield. Now a 34.6% probability of lifting the trophy, which equates to $2.90 in a 100% market. That makes the $3.00 on offer some pretty good value.

CHELSEA

CURRENT: Title winners: 7.8% / Top 4: 72.6%
END OF LAST MONTH: Title winners: 7.3% / Top 4: 66.6%
PRE-SEASON: Title winners: 5.9% / Top 4: 50.1%

Chelsea were flying at the start of September but stalled at West Ham before a home draw against Liverpool which could provide crucial to their remote chances of knocking off the two favourites. They start October with a trip to Southampton, where they’ve won six of their last seven, before a very winnable home game against the struggling Manchester United. They’ve increased their probability of returning to the Champions League significantly – they now finish in the top four in 72% of simulations, up from just 50% at the start of the season. That equates to $1.38 in a 100% market, which makes the 1.20 available not worth touching.

TOTTENHAM

CURRENT: Title winners: 4.3% / Top 4: 67.1%
END OF LAST MONTH: Title winners: 12.5% / Top 4: 73.0%
PRE-SEASON: Title winners: 9.9% / 62.6%

Our best roughie for the title at the start of the season, we still believe that there is some value to be found on the Spurs. Despite the back-to-back losses to start the month, it’s still their second-best start to a Premier League season this decade – only bettered by their top two run in 2016/17. They’ve scored 2+ in five of seven games and only Wolves and the top three have conceded fewer goals. They’re now winning 4.3% of titles, down from 10% at the start of August, which rates them as a $23 chance whereas you can find as much as $41s in the market. For top four, the model has them a $1.50 chance, with the average price hovering around $1.60. That’s worth taking, as with games against Cardiff and West Ham to come, they should be shorter come end of October.

ARSENAL

CURRENT: Title winners: 1.7% / Top 4: 39.1%
END OF LAST MONTH: Title winners: 1.6% / Top 4: 27.2%
PRE-SEASON: Title winners: 3.8% / Top 4: 35.4%

If you fancy Tottenham’s fierce North London rivals to pip them for a top four place, you’ve also got our blessing to back it. After a much easier month than their first, the Gunners have built together a five-game winning streak and find themselves just four points shy of City and Liverpool. They face three very winnable games either side of the international break: Fulham (A), Leicester (H), Crystal Palace (A). They’ve won all four home games v Leicester this decade as well as four of their last five at Palace. Rated a $2.63 chance for top four in a 100% market based on our 10,000 simulations, that makes the $2.75 available a good price to take.

MANCHESTER UNITED

CURRENT: Title winners: 0.9% / Top 4: 28.2%
END OF LAST MONTH: Title winners: 2.1% / Top 4: 37.6%
PRE-SEASON: Title winners: 10.4% / Top 4: 70.3%

Can anybody put a finger on Manchester United this season? Just when they looked to be getting things back together with easy away victories, Wolves held them 1-1 (as they did to City) and then another disastrous loss to West Ham – their second in five trips there. Their woes have been well-documented: this equals their worst start to a season (after seven matches) this decade. They finished seventh in 2013/14 after starting with ten points from their first seven. An almost sure thing to make the top four at the start of the season, they are now finishing there in just 28% of SI simulations. That equates to a $3.50 chance in a 100% market, so the 3.50 on offer amongst some books is reasonable valuable – if you can have it. By no means is it panic stations for United yet, with 31 games to go, but hard to have them finishing ahead of the likes of Chelsea and Tottenham at this stage. They’ll need to win at home against Newcastle and Everton in October to remain in contention.

WATFORD

CURRENT: Top 4: 0.8% / Relegation: 2.9%
END OF LAST MONTH: Top 4: 0.5% / Relegation: 8.1%
PRE-SEASON: Top 4: 0.3% / Relegation: 25%

Watford started their September with a shock win over Tottenham to go 4-0-0, but since have stalled and the away draw with Fulham would have been particularly disappointing. An easier October awaits and they should be defeating Bournemouth and Huddersfield at home to have at least 19 points, which could keep them in the top six. Touted fifth most likely for relegation at the start of the season, only eight clubs have a smaller relegation probability than the Hornets.

WOLVERHAMPTON

CURRENT: Top 4: 1.9% / Relegation: 3.1%
END OF LAST MONTH: Top 4: 1.4% / Relegation: 16.9%
PRE-SEASON: Top 4: 1.2% / Relegation: 29.9%

If you took the $3.00 for Wolves to be relegated at the start of the season, your ticket looks to well and truly be confetti now. They’ve lost just once in seven weeks despite taking on both Manchester sides and Everton in the opening rounds. Three winnable games – Palace (A), Watford (H), Brighton (A) – present themselves. If they can get through October relatively unscathed they’ll almost certainly ensure survival by Christmas.  

LEICESTER CITY

CURRENT: Top 4: 1.8% / Relegation: 1.4%
END OF LAST MONTH: Top 4: 2.0% / Relegation: 2.8%
PRE-SEASON: Top 4: 2.1% / Relegation: 3.9%

Little change for Leicester – their relegation probability has slightly shrunk from an already-minute 3.9% to just 1.4%. Look certain to be a mid-table player incapable of defeating top-six sides but far too good for the bottom six.

BOURNEMOUTH

CURRENT: Relegation: 5.0%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 8.8%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 13.4%

Bournemouth have been quite inconsistent and are now tenth most-likely to be sent down, an improvement from seventh most-likely at the start of August. They’ve travelled quite ordinarily, being thumped by Burnley a fortnight ago, but thumped Leicester at home. Watford away will test as will Southampton at home to follow.

BRIGHTON

CURRENT: Relegation: 20.4%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 19.4%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 21.9%

The Seagulls hover around the danger zone after failing to win in September, and despite some tough opposition, opening the month with a home draw with Fulham would have hurt.  The worst travelling side in the league last season, they haven’t improved remotely in that aspect, with just one point on the road from four trips this time around. They’re hosting two improving sides in West Ham and Wolves while travelling to Newcastle, who won eight at home last season. They simply need to start better: they’ve opened the scoring just once this season. The 20.4% bottom three finishes from our model places them at around the $5.00 quote, which means no edge to be found for the ~4.33 on offer.

BURNLEY

CURRENT: Relegation: 23.9%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 24.3%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 13.2%

Burnley have shaken off the burden of a tiring Europa campaign with some much stronger football, finding consecutive victories against Bournemouth and Cardiff to close out the month. Still, given their opposition so far this season (such as Southampton, Fulham and Wolves), they would – and should – expect to be in a better position. They were never going to match their glorious 2017/18 run, but to have nearly doubled their chances of relegation would be of great concern. Our model rates them about a $4.20 chance in a 100% market, so the ~3.25 on offer is not worth touching. Especially when we’ve got two near-dead certainties in Cardiff and Huddersfield who are faring much worse early on.

CRYSTAL PALACE

CURRENT: Relegation: 7.8%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 9.2%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 11.4%

A great improvement on their seven consecutive losses to open 2017/18, and they’ve done just enough so far to remain a minute chance of relegation. Inconsistency continues to plague them, particularly at home where they still haven’t found the back of the net, but they look quite safe at the moment. The coming game against Wolves will be a great test.

EVERTON

CURRENT: Top 4: 0.8% / Relegation: 1.9%
END OF LAST MONTH: Top 4: 4.7% / Relegation: 1.4%
PRE-SEASON: Top 4: 3.3% / Relegation: 1.7%

Very little change from Everton. Considered 7^th most likely to finish top four at the start of the season, the Toffees have won just twice – against Southampton and Fulham – almost certainly shoring them up as just one of the mid-table numbers this season.

FULHAM

CURRENT: Relegation: 33.4%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 27.5%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 39.2%

With just one win to their name and a couple of tricky months coming up, Fulham is currently fantastic value at $3.50 to be sent straight back down. This is their worst start to a Premier League season this decade. After a winless September in which they conceded nine goals in four games, they have to contend with Arsenal this coming weekend as well as trips to Anfield, Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford still to come before Christmas. The SI model has them as third most likely to be relegated whereas most books are giving them a better chance of survival than Newcastle and Burnley. We’ve rated them a $3.00 chance based on a 100% market, which makes the $3.50 very appealing.

NEWCASTLE UNITED

CURRENT: Relegation: 26.5%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 19.1%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 10.1%

Their worst start to a Premier League season this decade, Newcastle’s relegation chances have increased steadily with every passing week. Just two points and four goals from seven matches, they have had the toughest of opening draws but would have expected to perform better at Cardiff and Crystal Palace. Now finishing bottom three in 26.5% of simulations, we rate them a $3.80 chance in a 100% market, which makes the ~3.25 around not worth taking. A trip to Old Trafford, where they haven’t won since 2013, will likely extend the winless streak to eight.

SOUTHAMPTON

CURRENT: Relegation: 16.2%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 17.9%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 8.9%

Their worst start to a Premier League season since 2012/13, four points in two games to start September did just enough to slightly reduce their relegation probability while some other clubs’ fortunes worsened. Just two clean sheets and one half-time lead to their name is of concern, and they’ll probably be wanting four points from their three October games against Chelsea (H), Bournemouth (A) and Newcastle (H) to have enough breathing space to negotiate a tough run towards Christmas. Currently rated a $6.25 chance by the model, so the average price of $5.50 is not really worth taking at this point.

WEST HAM

CURRENT: Relegation: 7.1%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 17.4%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 8.9%

Currently rated a $14 chance to be relegated by the model which means no value to be found in backing them. Hard to see them dropping down, anyway, after their September: they turned around a slow start with two wins from three and a home draw to the high-flying Chelsea. They won just three on the road last season, but after taking victory at Goodison Park should be confident of knocking off Brighton away this coming weekend, and victory there would put them in good stead to take on Tottenham, who have beaten them just once in their last four meetings.

HUDDERSFIELD

CURRENT: Relegation: 72.3%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 58.3%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 47.3%

Aaron Mooy’s boys are rock bottom, winless and having failed to even score from their four games at home let alone taste victory. They had nine points at this point last year, so it’s a dramatic collapse in fortune. Now finishing bottom three in 72% of simulations, up from 47% at the start of the year, it remains to be seen where they’ll find a win when the likes of Crystal Palace and Leicester are burying them. They haven’t led at half-time once this season and have conceded seven goals in the 31-45 minute range. The trip to Burnley will be a big indication of where their season is at. At a 100% market, we rate them a $1.40 chance for relegation, so it’s currently not worth backing at the price.

CARDIFF CITY

CURRENT: Relegation: 77.8%
END OF LAST MONTH: Relegation: 68.3%
PRE-SEASON: Relegation: 64.8%

Even Neil Warnock admits the Bluebirds are “lacking a little bit of quality”, and it’s gone from bad to worse: they are now being relegated in nearly 78% of simulations, up from 64% in pre-season. One of three winless sides and they’ve conceded a staggering 14 goals in four consecutive losses, albeit three of those losses against “the big six”. Ten of their 16 goals conceded this season have been in the last 15 minutes of a half, which is a big problem. It doesn’t get any easier: they’re away to Tottenham and Liverpool in October. The SI model has them as a $1.30 chance to fail to turn things around, which sits in line with the prices available, and I suspect that they’ll be even shorter in four weeks.

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