Drink Locally, Punt Globally - Big day of value at Club 20!

Korea, Paris, Shanghai, Melbourne – Club 20 is in full Carmen Sandiego mode this week as we chase sports and racing value around the world from the comfort of the pool bar!

It starts in Melbourne this afternoon, At Caulfield for the Blue Sapphire Day where the racing guys are in concurrence with the Stats Insider Racing model, liking the value about a couple of runners in the early races. 

Our main focus though is on the CJ Cup as the PGA Tour heads to Nine Bridges Golf Club on the Island of Jeju to start the three-week ‘Asian swing’. 

We’re also heading to Paris and Shanghai to dip the toe into some Euro and LPGA markets where our golf guys have spied some value - they copped an absolute bath last week in Houston but hopes are high they can respond this week.

Racing: Caulfield R3 #13 – Oceanex @ 3.90

Been close without breaking through (no thanks to Mick Dee at Cranbourne last Friday!) but a jockey error may be to our advantage here with bookmakers offering a very appealing price. The 3.80 fixed price almost broke the Stats Insider Cheat Sheet as the edge (13.7%!) rocketed into double figures which is pretty rare. Form at this distance is great, anyone who has followed this mare will be keen but we’re not expecting the price to crunch too much, might get over 4’s late as others come in.

Racing: Caufield R4 #11 – Royalty @ 4.80

Winner two starts back at Bendigo and stuck on well last start after getting into some trouble late. Been building to get this distance and again, the guys here at Club 20 who follow racing agree with the Stats Insider model’s big edge (7.7%) so we’re on board now too.

RELATED: STATS INSIDER RACING CHEAT SHEET

PGA: CJ Cup Outright – Brooke Koepka @ 10.00

There are eight bridges at this course with the ninth bridge a metaphorical one linking the golfer to the course and the game, but we’re adding a tenth, far more tangible bridge this week. one meant to bring us together with a brand-new set of clubs via punting glory!

It starts with the world #1 at what I think are generous odds. He is the defending champ and won by four shots last year (!!) despite Ryan Palmer shooting a -10 62 on Sunday. This course looks as if it were built for Brooks. He gets an excellent look at birdie on all four Par 5’s and there are two driveable Par 4’s at 350 yards where he gets a big advantage over the field. Dusted the cobwebs off in Vegas two weeks ago, will have his big boy pants on for this though.

PGA: CJ Cup Outright – Sergio Garcia EW @ 31.00 / 6.00

Driving distance/accuracy and around the green/wedge prowess are what we’re targeting with our picks this week which brings Sergio right into the conversation. He loves playing in this part of the world (six wins in Asia) and has been in great form recently (T23, 1st, T7 last three starts). Course fits, he travels well, he’s in good form. Yes, please!

PGA: CJ Cup Outright – Danny Willett EW @ 36.00 / 7.00

Good spot from the Meatman on the Betting on Golf Pod this week, takig Willett at looks like really fair odds for a guy coming off a win three starts back at the BMW Champs (by 3 strokes if you don’t mind). Willett’s game translates here too. He is not as long as Brooks or Sergio (ranked #31 in this field) but his irons and around the green game is much more solid, especially at this key distances 150-175 and under 100 yards. If he does miss, he is one of the best in the field around the greens. Played in Italy last week the only concern for me but he played well.

PGA: CJ Cup Outright – Kiradech Aphibarnrat EW @ 131.00 / 26.00

Before you click off the page, hear me out! Obviously, this is a real flyer, but I think it’s one well worth taking. Remember this is a no-cut event just like a WGC event where the Rat finished T3 in Mexico in Feb (and T4 in China, T5 in Mexico in 2018). He is ranked #1 in this field for strokes gained around the greens. His ability to not just get out of trouble, but to still get a look at birdie from a greenside bunker is excellent. Can get really hot with the putter but most importantly for me, this course looks like it will cushion some of his wayward shots off the tee. Think he is well worth a shot at big odds.

PGA: CJ Cup T10 Market – Matthew Wolff @ 5.00

Wolff has the distance and accuracy off the tee that we’re targeting here and he has the aggressive mindset needed at this course to take advantage. Good with wedge in hand as well, so if he fires up with the putter, we can see him contending this week at great odds for a top ten finish.  

PGA: CJ Cup 3Ball Multi @ 4.00

  • Brooks Koepka @ 2.10
  • Rafa Cabrera-Bello @ 1.90

PGA: CJ Cup 3Ball Multi @ 11.20 

  • Brooks Koepka @ 2.10
  • Rafa Cabrera-Bello @ 1.90
  • Jason Day @ 2.80

PGA: CJ Cup 3Ball Multi @ 33.70

  • Brooks Koepka @ 2.10
  • Rafa Cabrera-Bello @ 1.90 
  • Jason Day @ 2.80
  • Sergio Garcia @ 3.00

Euro Tour: Open de France – Martin Kaymer EW @ 41.00 / 8.00

The form is not great leading into this event with back-to-back missed cuts, but Kaymer has the skillset to compete at this really tight course in what is a horribly weak field. T5 here in 2016, T4 in 2015 in much stronger fields. Has the pedigree, just needs a turnaround in form and with this field being so soft he might need only six or seven under to win this.

LPGA: Buick Shanghai Outright – Nelly Korda EW @ 19.00 / 3.75

This one is all on the Meatman who brought up Korda on the Betting on Golf Podcast this week. Been in form with three top 25’s last 3 starts including a T9 at the British Open. T3 at the PGA Champs too this year. I have nothing else for you but we’re on and we’ll be watching.

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitterto tell us where you think the value is this week 👇

Hedge

Cruelly denied sporting glory due to recurring shin splint complaints and an aversion to warm-up laps, Hedge now spends his days golfing, fishing the leaves out of the Club 20 pools and identifying value plays in PGA, AFL, AFLW and T20. All you really need to know about him is he's more than comfortable taking 3I off the tee on a Par 5, and more than capable of pulling driver off the deck second shot.

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