Dolphins vs Commanders Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 11, 2025

The Miami Dolphins will sqaure off with the Washington Commanders in NFL Week 11 action at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium on Monday, starting at 1:30am AEDT.

This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Dolphins vs Commanders game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.

Who Will Win?

Based on advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Miami vs Washington NFL game 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Dolphins a 58% chance of defeating the Commanders at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.

Dolphins vs Commanders: Odds

The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium are listed here:

• Head to Head: Dolphins $1.71, Commanders $2.20
• Line: Dolphins -2.5 ($1.91), Commanders +2.5 ($1.91)
• Total (Over/Under 47 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Dolphins at $1.71 and the Commanders at $2.20.

The Dolphins are 2.5-point favourites against the Commanders, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.

For the underdog Commanders (+2.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 47 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the bookmakers have got it right and both the Dolphins and the Commanders have a 50% chance of covering the line.

The 47-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.

Dolphins vs Commanders: Betting Tips

• Head to Head: Miami at $1.71 with Bet365
• Line: Commanders +2.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
• Total Points: Under 47 at $1.91 with Bet365

These Dolphins vs Commanders betting tips are based on detailed simulations and betting experience to give you the best possible advice around the clock.

Dolphins vs Commanders: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Dolphins vs Commanders at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Week 11 is the Dolphins winning 24-22.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Miami vs Washington game in Week 11, including data-driven predictions and computer tips.

For in-depth analysis from US experts,, check out Dimers' detailed Dolphins vs Commanders prediction.

18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Dolphins vs Commanders: TD Scorer Tips

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Dolphins vs Commanders? The latest data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Miami's De'Von Achane is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Dolphins vs Commanders.

Achane has a 15.5% chance of getting in for six first at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, while the Dolphins RB has a 58.1% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.

Scroll down for the complete list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.

First Touchdown Scorer Tips

Dolphins First TD Tips

• De'Von Achane: 15.5% probability
• Jaylen Waddle: 9.9% probability
• Malik Washington: 5.8% probability
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 3.6% probability
• Greg Dulcich: 3.5% probability

Commanders First TD Tips

• Chris Rodriguez: 8.1% probability
• Deebo Samuel: 7.3% probability
• Zach Ertz: 6.5% probability
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 5.5% probability
• Marcus Mariota: 3.9% probability

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips

Dolphins Anytime TD Tips

• De'Von Achane: 58.1% probability
• Jaylen Waddle: 42.5% probability
• Malik Washington: 27.7% probability
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 18.4% probability
• Greg Dulcich: 17.9% probability

Commanders Anytime TD Tips

• Chris Rodriguez: 37.3% probability
• Deebo Samuel: 34.5% probability
• Zach Ertz: 31.2% probability
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 27.4% probability
• Marcus Mariota: 20.1% probability

Dolphins-Commanders Projected Player Stats

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is projected for 236 passing yards. The Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 210 yards.

Dolphins Starting QB

• Tua Tagovailoa: 236 projected passing yards

Commanders Starting QB

• Marcus Mariota: 210 projected passing yards

Dolphins Rushing Yards

• De'Von Achane: 83 projected yards
• Jaylen Wright: 10 projected yards
• Ollie Gordon: 10 projected yards

Commanders Rushing Yards

• Chris Rodriguez: 43 projected yards
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 32 projected yards
• Marcus Mariota: 30 projected yards

Dolphins Receiving Yards

• Jaylen Waddle: 82 projected yards
• De'Von Achane: 41 projected yards
• Malik Washington: 36 projected yards
• Greg Dulcich: 28 projected yards
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 23 projected yards

Commanders Receiving Yards

• Deebo Samuel: 54 projected yards
• Zach Ertz: 45 projected yards
• Chris Moore: 31 projected yards
• Robbie Chosen: 30 projected yards
• Jaylin Lane: 28 projected yards

Our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the Miami vs Washington match-up.

As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips on every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Dolphins vs Commanders: Week 11 Essential Details

The NFL Week 11 match-up between the Dolphins and Commanders at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:30am AEDT on Monday.

• Teams: Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders
• Date: Monday 17 November 2025
• Time: 1:30am AEDT
• Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

Our Miami vs Washington predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.

If you decide to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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