Data Road Trip: Close, But Not Close Enough

It was a week of "nearly" in the AFL and NRL. Close, but not quite close enough. There was a few blowouts (including some unexpected underdogs) but this week's focus is on the team's who were never quite there.

49%

That's as close as Richmond got to the team they defeated in the 2017 Grand Final on Thursday Night, as Adelaide triumphed in front of their home crowd. They were down a man when Matt Crouch's hamstring went, Rory Sloane and James Talia were strapped up and sent back out playing on one leg each and the Crows found a way, eventually winning by six goals in their first attempt at healing the scars of last September's failure.

76%

Collingwood valiantly fought and battled against the superior depth and talent of Greater Western Sydney on Saturday afternoon at the MCG, and actually took the lead in the fourth quarter with their win probability jumping to 76 percent. Nevertheless the Giants scoring and running power eventually overwhelmed the Pies, who slumped to a second loss.

98%

Brisbane looked very poor early on against Melbourne, who raced out to an early lead. The Demons win probability climbed as high as 98 percent, such was their dominance. The Lions clawed their way back however, shell shocking the Demons with six consecutive goals to tie the score. Melbourne's experience won out however, and Brisbane fell short of a miracle comeback.

3

The Saturday night blockbuster in the West started as an even contest between Fremantle and Essendon, a seesaw battle which saw three swings in the win probability index in favour of either team. The Dockers took control after halftime though, and kicked away for a debut win on their new home ground.

55%

The Melbourne Storm were expected to be too much for the Cronulla Sharks on Friday night, even as the road team. With such a powerful forward pack and scoring punch, they were supposed to eventually overwhelm the Sharks. It didn't work out that way. After being a 55 percent chance of victory just past the 20 minute mark, Edrick Lee found his way over the line for a try and the Storm never got closer than that again all night.