Cowboys vs Dragons Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 21, 2025
Last updated: Jul 25, 2025, 8:00AM | Published: Jul 20, 2025, 11:30PM
The Cowboys will face the Dragons in NRL Round 21 action at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Friday, beginning at 6:00pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Cowboys vs Dragons game, plus the latest betting odds and try scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's North Queensland vs St George Illawarra NRL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Cowboys a 66% chance of defeating the Dragons at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
Cowboys vs Dragons: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Friday's NRL clash at Queensland Country Bank Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Cowboys $1.65, Dragons $2.30
- Line: Cowboys -4.5 ($1.91), Dragons +4.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 49.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Cowboys at $1.65 and the Dragons at $2.30.
The Cowboys are 4.5-point favourites against the Dragons, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Dragons (+4.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 49.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Cowboys (-4.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 49.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 58% of the time.
Cowboys vs Dragons: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Cowboys at $1.65 with Bet365
- Line: Cowboys -4.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 49.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
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Cowboys vs Dragons: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Cowboys vs Dragons at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Friday is the Cowboys winning 25-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Cowboys vs St George match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Cowboys vs Dragons: Try Scorers
Searching for Cowboys vs Dragons try scorers? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, the Cowboys' Braidon Burns is the most likely player to score the first try in North Queensland vs St George Illawarra.
Burns has a 8.1% chance of scoring the first try at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, while the Cowboys star has a 47.0% chance of scoring a try at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
North Queensland Cowboys
- Braidon Burns: 8.1% probability
- Robert Derby: 6.7% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 6.3% probability
- Jaxon Purdue: 6.2% probability
- Scott Drinkwater: 5.3% probability
St George Illawarra Dragons
- Tyrell Sloan: 7.6% probability
- Clinton Gutherson: 6.6% probability
- Corey Allan: 5.1% probability
- Mathew Feagai: 4.9% probability
- Jaydn Su'A: 3.6% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
North Queensland Cowboys
- Braidon Burns: 47.0% probability
- Robert Derby: 42.1% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 40.8% probability
- Jaxon Purdue: 39.2% probability
- Scott Drinkwater: 36.1% probability
St George Illawarra Dragons
- Tyrell Sloan: 48.4% probability
- Clinton Gutherson: 40.8% probability
- Corey Allan: 35.4% probability
- Mathew Feagai: 35.1% probability
- Jaydn Su'A: 27.6% probability
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Cowboys vs Dragons match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips on every NRL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Cowboys vs Dragons: Essential Details
The NRL Round 21 clash between the Cowboys and Dragons at Queensland Country Bank Stadium is scheduled to begin at 6:00pm AEST on Friday.
- Teams: North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons
- Date: Friday 25 July 2025
- Kick-off: 6:00pm AEST
- Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Cowboys vs St George predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our rugby league tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
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