Collingwood vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2026
Last updated: Mar 14, 2026, 8:32AM | Published: Mar 9, 2026, 5:10AM
Collingwood will sqaure off with Adelaide in AFL Round 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 7:35pm AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Collingwood vs Adelaide game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Saturday's Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Magpies a 66% chance of beating the Crows in Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season.
Collingwood vs Adelaide: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Collingwood $1.56, Adelaide $2.45
- Line: Collingwood -10.5 ($1.91), Adelaide +10.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 175.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Collingwood at $1.56 and Adelaide at $2.45.
The Magpies are listed as 10.5-point favourites against the Crows, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Crows (+10.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 175.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Magpies (-10.5) are predicted to cover the line 53% of the time, while the 175.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 57% of the time.
Collingwood vs Adelaide: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Collingwood at $1.56 with Bet365
- Line: Collingwood -10.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 175.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
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Stats Insider's Collingwood vs Adelaide predictions are based on market-leading modelling and wagering expertise to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
Collingwood vs Adelaide: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Collingwood vs Adelaide at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday is Collingwood winning 92-79.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Collingwood vs Adelaide match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and free tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Collingwood vs Adelaide: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Collingwood vs Adelaide goalscorer tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Collingwood's Jamie Elliott is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Collingwood vs Adelaide.
Elliott has a 6.9% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Magpies star has an 87.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Collingwood
- Jamie Elliott: 6.9% probability
- Tim Membrey: 6.2% probability
- Lachie Schultz: 4.4% probability
- Daniel McStay: 3.8% probability
- Nick Daicos: 3.6% probability
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 5.7% probability
- Taylor Walker: 5.0% probability
- Ben Keays: 4.9% probability
- Josh Rachele: 4.9% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 4.4% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Collingwood
- Jamie Elliott: 87.3% probability
- Tim Membrey: 83.1% probability
- Lachie Schultz: 71.5% probability
- Nick Daicos: 65.0% probability
- Daniel McStay: 64.5% probability
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 83.3% probability
- Taylor Walker: 77.7% probability
- Ben Keays: 77.2% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 76.3% probability
- Josh Rachele: 75.7% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting tips before the Collingwood vs Adelaide match.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Collingwood vs Adelaide: Essential Details
The AFL Round 1 clash between the Magpies and Crows at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:35pm AEDT on Saturday.
- Teams: Collingwood vs Adelaide
- Date: Saturday 14 March 2026
- Time: 7:35pm AEDT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Collingwood vs Adelaide predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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