The barbeque sauce, condiments and cutlery are being excitedly prepared for one special Club 20 patron who yesterday broke a cardinal rule of man-life by issuing a proclaimation that the rest of the front bar now hopes he will come to regret tonight at the SCG.

As the Sydney Swans go into tonight’s clash against the Bulldogs with 127 ruckmen, Club 20 regular MC will be hoping one of those ruckmen don’t bob up for some goals…whilst the rest of us will be praying he has kicked 2 by quarter time!

It hasn’t exactly been raining luck on Club 20 punters in this post-covid world. Our goal kickers are spraying them from right in front and our Golfers are teeing off one or two back on Sundays and chocking hard. 

We’re close, we can feel it. We just need that one little moment to kickstart our season and I think, don’t get too excited now, but I think that moment arrived yesterday afternoon at the front bar.

It started off as a pretty regular Wednesday afternoon of AFL betting speculation and as teams dropped revealing the Swans plethora of ruckmen, I offered that Sydney could play Sinclair out of the square all game and that he could bob up for a goal or three. 

Then it happened…

“If Callum Sinclair kicks three goals I will eat my hat”

It was like the milky bar kid had just walked in. The deafening silence was followed by a chorus of manly grins as the assembled crowd realised what had just happened. 

He could have said we were idiots, he could have sat there arms folded confidently as he shook his head saying it wont happen. Instead, he offered to digest his headwear if it did, offering no consequence whatsoever for those of us who heard it. 

“Well now we have to bet it”, offered Spesh as he went off to find some condiments to place on the hat-eating table. 

To his credit, MC had immediately grasped his error and attempted to course correct by fishing a pineapple out of his wallet, waving it infront of Parks.

“There’s no way he kicks 3, $50 says he doesn’t kick 3.”

Drunk as he was, Parks was having none of it, shouldering arms expertly as he ordered another schooner.

“Na mate, you said hat, you going baseball cap or should I bring in that straw broad brim? Might go down easier?”

And that, ladies and bruces, is the tale of how Club 20 came to be on the big number #18 for the Swans tonight, and (hopefully) the tale of how our season turned around!

AFL – Swans v Bulldogs

Bailey Smith Disposals 20+, 25+, 30+, 35+ 

Josh Dunkley is out and Macrea is still being compelled to play on a wing sans Lachie Hunter which makes the Bulldogs onball brigade pretty light on, especially if Bont gets a hard tag from George Hewett. Bont has been a real problem for the Swans in recent years and without Dunkley or Hunter, they may view the midfield battle as ‘shutdown Bont, shutdown Dogs’. Whether this happens or not, Bailey Smith is slated for a much larger chunk of onball minutes. Averaging 23 disposals post-covid including a 29 touch game against the Saints. That was WITH Dunks in. At 1.80 (20), 3.75 (25), 13’s (30) and 81’s (35) Smith is worth a good look tonight, expect he gets a 5+ disposal bumb very safely here, expecting high 20’s, hoping for 30 and beyond in a blinder. 

Callum Sinclair 1 Goal, 2+ Goals, 3+ Goals

Look it’s not our sharpest bet, but if sydney do go into this game with three bigs, then Sinclair is one guy very used to and very capable of playing forward. If they don’t stick a big man down there then Kieth and Cordy will cut off the high balls, and if Sinclair does sit down there he will have 6 inches on whoever is standing him. Plus, a guy is going to eat a hat soooo… kick straight son!

PGA - Travellers Championship

For two weeks now we’ve been in with a strong chance come Sunday only for our players to falter on the final day, with Rory shooting a shocking 4 over at Colonial and Joel Dahmen doing similar last week at the Heritage. 

Hoping for third times a charm here at TPC River Highlands for the Travellers, a course that will reward length and aggression (providing it is accurate) much more so than the last fortnight. 

6 golfers this week, comprising 20 bets – little breezy this afternoon so we’re stacking the AM/PM tee time hoping to get off to a good start, and dismissing guys who can’t play the wind because it’s going to be Windy As Firetruck at this course on Saturday in particular. Double digits could take this down. 

Rory McIlroy Win, Top 5, Top 10, First Round Leader

• Win @ 11

• Top 5 @ 3.20

• Top 10 @ 2.10

• First Round Leader @ 21.00

This Par 70 features 12 Par 4’s which compels us to consider McIlroy strongly. 

The World #1 has been a little inconsistent to re-start the season but has shot the low round both Fridays so the game is not far away from clicking.  He leads this field in Par 4 scoring and he can be much more aggressive here on the Par 5’s and the driveable Par 4 15th which all become eagle chances for Rory. 

His two visits here make for very interesting reading. Lost 5.5 and 3.7 on the greens in two attempts here, some of his worst ever putting on tour, but still finished T12 and T17, gaining 7 (yes, seven!) strokes OTT both years (as well as 3 on approach in 2018). Love his early tee time and love the prices we’re getting.

Paul Casey

• Win @ 41

• Top 5 @ 7.00

• Top 10 @ 4.25

• Top 20 @ 2.25

Course form and price combine to sneak Casey into this card despite being first up. With no recent form to go off we are getting a great number on a guy who has destroyed this course and at his best is a top 5 in the world player. 

T5, T2, T5, T17 and T2 in five attempts at TPC River highlands. There is no better course form in the field. Very likely surrendering a slight edge to the field being fresh off a very long break but he is a ball striker at a course that will demand that skill especially in windy conditions. Off early Thursday so hopefully he can start well and fire a score in calm conditions 

Shane Lowry

• Win @ 126

• Top 5 @ 21.00

• Top 10 @ 9.00

• Top 20 @ 4.25

Giving Lowry one last chance to show us someing before dropping him like the cold pie he has been playing like. Odds do not reflect the pedigree of player we’re getting so this is a price play not form, but with the early tee off Thursday Lowry has a chance to start better than he has been, then hammer home that advantage in windy conditions where he gains 2.2 strokes on the field on average. Poa the prefered surface another tick. 

Just make that cut Shane, things can happen from there. 

Keegan Bradley

• Win @ 126

• Top 5 @ 21.00

• Top 10 @ 9.00

• Top 20 @ 4.25

Solid recent form for Bradely (T32 and T42) combine with amazing course form (made his last 8 cuts and been outside the top 40 once in 8 years). Has two Top 10 finishes here in the last 3 years including runner up in 2019. 

Off early, plays well in the wind and loves the course – that’s enough for us to have a go at great odds.  

Matthew Wolff 

• Top 10 @ 13.00

• Top 20 @ 6.00

Played like absolute Wolff shit the last fortnight but prepared to take a risk on price here. The guys he is priced around are just not in his class if he clicks. Ranked in the top 10 for driving distance in the field, Wolff can turn three holes here into eagle chances which is an edge over a lot of the field this week. 

Has played well in wind conditions and teeing off nice and early Thursday. This guy was the best player on the KFT last year and his odds just don’t reflect the kind of player he is. Has to turn around and this course will suit his aggression. 

Sepp Straka

• Top 20 @ 8.00

• First Round Leader @ 126.00

Absolute roughie but signs are there for Straka to land some bets for us here. Prepared to forgive last his 2019 travellers where he lost a massive 6 strokes on the greens. Career worst. 

He flushed his irons last week (gained 3.7 on approach) for a T33 at Heritage and he often makes cuts back to back. Out early Thursday, capable of a 63 on his good days.