Carlton vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2026
Last updated: Mar 12, 2026, 8:25AM | Published: Mar 9, 2026, 5:20AM
Carlton will sqaure off with Richmond in AFL Round 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, commencing at 7:30pm AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Carlton vs Richmond game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Thursday's Carlton vs Richmond AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 71% chance of beating the Tigers in Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season.
Carlton vs Richmond: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Carlton $1.33, Richmond $3.35
- Line: Carlton -20.5 ($1.91), Richmond +20.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 170.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Carlton at $1.33 and Richmond at $3.35.
The Blues are listed as 20.5-point favourites against the Tigers, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Tigers (+20.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 170.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Tigers (+20.5) are predicted to cover the line 53% of the time, while the 170.5-point over/under is expected to go over 55% of the time.
Carlton vs Richmond: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Richmond at $3.35 with Bet365
- Line: Richmond +20.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 170.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Carlton vs Richmond predictions are based on detailed simulations and gambling expertise to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Blues have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Tigers to win is our preferred option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability.
Carlton vs Richmond: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Carlton vs Richmond at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Thursday is Carlton winning 95-77.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Carlton vs Richmond match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and computer tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Carlton vs Richmond: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Carlton vs Richmond goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Carlton's Harry McKay is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Richmond.
McKay has a 6.9% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Blues star has an 87.7% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 6.9% probability
- Will Hayward: 5.6% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 5.3% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 4.5% probability
- Zac Williams: 4.2% probability
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 6.1% probability
- Seth Campbell: 4.0% probability
- Jonty Faull: 3.8% probability
- Sam Lalor: 3.6% probability
- Rhyan Mansell: 3.4% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 87.7% probability
- Will Hayward: 80.9% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 77.8% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 71.9% probability
- Zac Williams: 71.2% probability
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 83.7% probability
- Jonty Faull: 68.7% probability
- Seth Campbell: 68.4% probability
- Sam Lalor: 63.6% probability
- Rhyan Mansell: 60.9% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this article for the latest betting predictions before the Carlton vs Richmond match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Carlton vs Richmond: Essential Details
The AFL Round 1 clash between the Blues and Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 7:30pm AEDT on Thursday.
- Teams: Carlton vs Richmond
- Date: Thursday 12 March 2026
- Time: 7:30pm AEDT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Carlton vs Richmond predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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