Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 18, 2026
Last updated: Jul 11, 2026, 2:30AM | Published: Jul 5, 2026, 8:25AM
Carlton will take on Hawthorn in AFL Round 18 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 7:35pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Carlton vs Hawthorn game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Hawks a 56% chance of winning against the Blues in Round 18 of the 2026 AFL season.
Carlton vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown here:
- Head to Head: Carlton $2.20, Hawthorn $1.68
- Line: Carlton +5.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn -5.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 148.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Carlton at $2.20 and Hawthorn at $1.68.
The Blues are 5.5-point underdogs against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Hawks (-5.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 148.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Blues (+5.5) are predicted to cover the line 53% of the time, while the 148.5-point over/under is expected to go over 53% of the time.
Carlton vs Hawthorn: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Carlton at $2.20 with Bet365
- Line: Carlton +5.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 148.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Carlton vs Hawthorn betting tips are based on complex simulations and betting experience to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Hawks have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Blues to win is our preferred option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term success as a punter.
Carlton vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Carlton vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday is Hawthorn prevailing 76-73.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Carlton vs Hawthorn match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Carlton vs Hawthorn: Goal Scorers
Looking for Carlton vs Hawthorn goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Jack Gunston is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Hawthorn.
Gunston has a 14.1% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has a 98.7% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 7.0% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 6.2% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 4.5% probability
- Francis Evans: 4.2% probability
- Will Hayward: 3.9% probability
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 14.1% probability
- Mabior Chol: 7.3% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 5.1% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 3.9% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 3.8% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 87.6% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 85.6% probability
- Will Hayward: 74.2% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 74.2% probability
- Francis Evans: 70.3% probability
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 98.7% probability
- Mabior Chol: 87.6% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 79.4% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 66.3% probability
- Dylan Moore: 66.3% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this article for the latest betting tips before the Carlton vs Hawthorn game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Carlton vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Round 18 clash between the Blues and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:35pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Carlton vs Hawthorn
- Date: Saturday 11 July 2026
- Time: 7:35pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Carlton vs Hawthorn predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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