Carlton vs Geelong Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 12, 2026
Last updated: May 29, 2026, 9:33AM | Published: May 24, 2026, 6:25AM
Carlton will sqaure off with the favoured Geelong in AFL Round 12 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, commencing at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Carlton vs Geelong game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Friday's Carlton vs Geelong AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Cats a 72% chance of winning against the Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Carlton vs Geelong: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Carlton $4.35, Geelong $1.22
- Line: Carlton +26.5 ($1.91), Geelong -26.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 178.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Carlton at $4.35 and Geelong at $1.22.
The Blues are 26.5-point underdogs against the Cats, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Cats (-26.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 178.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Blues (+26.5) are predicted to cover the line 59% of the time, while the 178.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Carlton vs Geelong: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Carlton at $4.35 with Bet365
- Line: Carlton +26.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 178.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of Stats Insider's best bets for today across all sports.
Today's Carlton vs Geelong betting tips are based on detailed simulations and gambling expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Cats have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Blues to win is our recommended option due to the 4.6% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability.
Carlton vs Geelong: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Carlton vs Geelong at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday is Geelong winning 98-79.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Carlton vs Geelong match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Carlton vs Geelong: Goal Kickers
Are you looking for Carlton vs Geelong goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Geelong's Jeremy Cameron is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Geelong.
Cameron has a 13.2% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Cats star has a 98.8% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 5.8% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 5.7% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 5.5% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 3.5% probability
- Jack Ison: 3.4% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 13.2% probability
- Shannon Neale: 8.4% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 6.7% probability
- Oliver Henry: 5.3% probability
- Patrick Dangerfield: 4.8% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Carlton
- Mitch McGovern: 83.6% probability
- Harry McKay: 83.6% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 81.2% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 67.8% probability
- Will Hayward: 63.2% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 98.8% probability
- Shannon Neale: 93.5% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 88.4% probability
- Oliver Henry: 79.5% probability
- Patrick Dangerfield: 75.4% probability
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Carlton vs Geelong match.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Carlton vs Geelong: Essential Details
The AFL Round 12 clash between the Blues and Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
- Teams: Carlton vs Geelong
- Date: Friday 29 May 2026
- Time: 7:40pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Carlton vs Geelong predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, tips for every AFL game, and futures probabilities for the AFL.
