Carlton vs Brisbane Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 21, 2026
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026, 9:30AM | Published: Jul 26, 2026, 7:30AM
Carlton will sqaure off with the favoured Brisbane in AFL Round 21 action at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Carlton vs Brisbane game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Carlton vs Brisbane AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Lions a 69% chance of beating the Blues in Round 21 of the 2026 AFL season.
Carlton vs Brisbane: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Carlton $3.25, Brisbane $1.35
- Line: Carlton +20.5 ($1.91), Brisbane -20.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 184.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Carlton at $3.25 and Brisbane at $1.35.
The Blues are 20.5-point underdogs against the Lions, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Lions (-20.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 184.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Blues (+20.5) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 184.5-point over/under is expected to go over 51% of the time.
Carlton vs Brisbane: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Carlton at $3.25 with Bet365
- Line: Carlton +20.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 184.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across any sport.
Today's Carlton vs Brisbane best bets are based on world-class simulations and gambling experience to give you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
While the Lions have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Blues to win is our recommended option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable punter in the long run.
Carlton vs Brisbane: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Carlton vs Brisbane at Marvel Stadium this Saturday is Brisbane winning 100-84.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Carlton vs Brisbane match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Carlton vs Brisbane: Goal Kickers
Looking for Carlton vs Brisbane goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Brisbane's Logan Morris is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Brisbane.
Morris has an 8.2% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Lions star has a 93.7% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 5.9% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 4.6% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 4.4% probability
- Will Hayward: 4.2% probability
- Francis Evans: 4.2% probability
Brisbane
- Logan Morris: 8.2% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 7.0% probability
- Kai Lohmann: 6.5% probability
- Zac Bailey: 5.1% probability
- Oscar Allen: 4.6% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 85.3% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 77.3% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 77.3% probability
- Will Hayward: 69.9% probability
- Francis Evans: 69.9% probability
Brisbane
- Logan Morris: 93.7% probability
- Kai Lohmann: 88.6% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 88.6% probability
- Zac Bailey: 79.9% probability
- Oscar Allen: 75.8% probability
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Carlton vs Brisbane game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Carlton vs Brisbane: Essential Details
The AFL Round 21 clash between the Blues and Lions at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEST on Saturday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Carlton vs Brisbane predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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