Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Prediction - ATP Monte-Carlo Masters 2026
Last updated: Apr 7, 2026, 11:32AM | Published: Apr 6, 2026, 6:54PM
Carlos Alcaraz will take on Sebastian Baez in the round of 32 at the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament on Tuesday.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Alcaraz vs Baez match, plus the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Alcaraz-Baez men's singles match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives Alcaraz a 96% chance of defeating Baez at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.
Alcaraz vs Baez: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Tuesday's ATP Monte-Carlo Masters match between Alcaraz and Baez are shown here:
- Head to Head: Alcaraz $1.02, Baez $17.00
- First Set: Alcaraz $1.08, Baez $8.00
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Alcaraz at $1.02 and Baez at $17.00.
TAB currently has odds for Alcaraz to win the first set at $1.08 and odds for Baez to win the first set at $8.00.
Alcaraz vs Baez: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Baez at $17.00 with TAB
- First Set: Baez at $1.90 with TAB (55% probability)
Stats Insider's Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez predictions are based on detailed modelling and gambling experience to bring you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
Even though our predictive analytics model indicates that Alcaraz is more likely to win the match, betting on Baez to win is the best option because of the edge we discovered when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds that are currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable sports bettor over the long run.
And while Alcaraz is more likely to win the first set on this occassion, our suggested bet of Baez ($1.90) is based on the likelihood of that happening, per our model, and the betting odds currently available.
Alcaraz vs Baez: Prediction
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez match at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Alcaraz-Baez match at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every tennis match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Alcaraz vs Baez: ATP Monte-Carlo Masters Essential Details
The 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to commence at 9:00pm AEST.
- Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez
- Date: Tuesday 7 April 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:00pm AEST
- Event: ATP Monte Carlo, Monaco Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our tennis tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our tennis predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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