Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Prediction - ATP Japan Open 2025
Last updated: Sep 25, 2025, 9:05AM | Published: Sep 23, 2025, 12:56AM
Carlos Alcaraz will take on Sebastian Baez in the round of 32 at the 2025 ATP Japan Open tournament on Thursday.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Alcaraz vs Baez match, as well as the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Thursday's Alcaraz-Baez men's singles match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives Alcaraz a 96% chance of winning against Baez at the ATP Japan Open tournament.
Alcaraz vs Baez: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Thursday's ATP Japan Open match between Alcaraz and Baez are listed below:
- Head to Head: Alcaraz $1.01, Baez $17.00
- First Set: Alcaraz $0.00, Baez $0.00
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Alcaraz at $1.01 and Baez at $17.00.
currently has odds for Alcaraz to win the first set at $0.00 and odds for Baez to win the first set at $0.00.
Alcaraz vs Baez: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Baez at $17.00 with TAB
- First Set: Baez at $1.60 with TAB (73% probability) 🔥
When you see a 🔥, that means it's one of Stats Insider's best bets for today across all sports.
Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez betting tips are based on world-class modelling and wagering intelligence to give you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
Although our predictive analytics model suggests that Alcaraz is more likely to win the match, betting on Baez to win is our preferred option because of the edge we found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds that are currently being offered.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable sports bettor over the long run.
And while Alcaraz is more likely to win the first set on this occassion, our suggested bet of Baez ($1.60) is based on the expectation of that happening, per our model, and the betting odds currently available.
Alcaraz vs Baez: Prediction
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez match at the ATP Japan Open tournament, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this article for the latest betting analysis before the Alcaraz-Baez match at the ATP Japan Open tournament.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips on every tennis match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Alcaraz vs Baez: ATP Japan Open Essential Details
The 2025 ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to start at 7:10pm AEST.
- Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez
- Date: Thursday 25 September 2025
- Approx. Time: 7:10pm AEST
- Event: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2025
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our tennis tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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