Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction - ATP Japan Open 2026
Last updated: Oct 3, 2026, 2:02PM | Published: Oct 3, 2026, 11:53AM
Carlos Alcaraz will face Denis Shapovalov in the quarter-finals at the 2026 ATP Japan Open tournament on Sunday.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Alcaraz vs Shapovalov match, along with the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Sunday's Alcaraz-Shapovalov men's singles match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives Alcaraz an 85% chance of defeating Shapovalov at the ATP Japan Open tournament.
Alcaraz vs Shapovalov: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Sunday's ATP Japan Open match between Alcaraz and Shapovalov are listed here:
- Head to Head: Alcaraz $1.11, Shapovalov $6.50
- First Set: Alcaraz $1.20, Shapovalov $4.50
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Alcaraz at $1.11 and Shapovalov at $6.50.
TAB currently has odds for Alcaraz to win the first set at $1.20 and odds for Shapovalov to win the first set at $4.50.
Alcaraz vs Shapovalov: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Shapovalov at $6.50 with TAB
- First Set: Shapovalov at $1.72 with TAB (55% probability)
Stats Insider's Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov best bets are based on world-class simulations and wagering experience to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
Even though our predictive analytics model indicates that Alcaraz is more likely to win the match, taking Shapovalov to win is our preferred option because of the edge we discovered when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds that are currently being offered.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable over the long run.
And while Alcaraz is more likely to win the first set on this occassion, our recommended bet of Shapovalov ($1.72) is based on the expectation of that happening, per our model, and the betting odds currently available.
Alcaraz vs Shapovalov: Prediction
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov match at the ATP Japan Open tournament, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Alcaraz-Shapovalov match at the ATP Japan Open tournament.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips for every tennis match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Alcaraz vs Shapovalov: ATP Japan Open Essential Details
The 2026 ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to commence at 3:00pm AEDT.
- Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov
- Date: Sunday 4 October 2026
- Approx. Time: 3:00pm AEDT
- Event: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Quarter-finals
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our tennis tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our tennis predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on Tennis
Stats Insider is your home for betting on tennis in Australia, with the latest tennis betting news, tips for every tennis match, and our in-house approach to accurately ranking the world's top 100 men's and women's players.
