Can The Suns Withstand The Power In China?

I tell you what Head we really do pick some tough ones to yarn about. Three weeks straight we've tackled Port games and I am still no closer to getting a bead on them. They seem to go from 2nd to 5th gear only when they are being embarrassed (Eagles, Crows) or on the cusp of being beaten (Lions). How much did that Showdown take out of them? How much backbone do the Suns have after that horror second half last week and ten weeks on the road? Help me make sense of it all!

Head was pleased that Port repaid it's faith last week - it was due. Last year the Power obliterated the Suns by 72 points in their Chinese dalliance. This time SI's models say it's a closer contest - the Suns cover the 42.5 point spread 60 percent of the time with the score going Under in 56 percent of simulations.

Last year the Suns were in the midst of a sacked coach and Gaz being more interested in walking on the wall than bleeding for the ball. It is a generous +42.5pt Line for the Suns and a case can be made that coach Dew can get them up for this given they have the bye next week. I just can't get that second half of the Suns out of my head, they were deplorable at the GABBA against Melbourne last week.

I like the idea of a lower scoring clash than previous matches - this is the matchup of the league's two best tackling outfits. The only worry for Gold Coast is that this is their 4th different "home ground" this season already - how much will the travel weary their legs? Additionally, can they improve their second-half play as you mentioned earlier - they've lost 7 of 8 final terms at a combined 102 points in those quarters. They've got to get back to their first few rounds level of pressure if they don't want the Power to run all over them.

I share your concern on the fatigue front. Though I will say that a) I think it will be offset slightly by the 'we get a break next week lads' factor and b) the Power midfielders are slow compared to the Dees. Witts should be able to put it where he wants more often than not whilst the likes of Ebert and Wines aren't tearing away from the middle like Oliver/Jones and co did to the Suns last week. Humidity over there should encourage early congestion and late skill errors - Heart is really coming around to the Suns +42.5pts and/or Unders. Sneaky one for exotics punters, Harbrow has a monster game in China last year and is due for one this season. His 35 touches last year in this fixture were a standout on a dark day for the Suns. paying $6.50 for 25+ touches. Should spend a bit of time down back in Suns defense too.

The rucking factor is a reason I like the idea of the Suns covering. Witts being able to control the ruck should cause Port issues the way it has with other sides this season, like Brisbane did earlier this year.

Precisely. Stats Insider does have the Suns winning 18% of the simulations which at $7.20 makes them a decent value play. Sounds like I'm on the red and yellow bandwagon in China Head!