Broncos vs Patriots Prediction and Preview - NFL AFC Championship Game 2026
Last updated: Jan 19, 2026, 2:21PM | Published: Jan 19, 2026, 10:55AM
The Denver Broncos will face the favoured New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game of the NFL Playoffs at Empower Field at Mile High on Monday, commencing at 7:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Broncos vs Patriots game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Denver vs New England NFL game 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Patriots a 70% chance of beating the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
Broncos vs Patriots: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Empower Field at Mile High are shown below:
- Head to Head: Broncos $3.10, Patriots $1.38
- Line: Broncos +5.5 ($1.91), Patriots -5.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 40.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Broncos at $3.10 and the Patriots at $1.38.
The Broncos are listed as 5.5-point underdogs against the Patriots, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Patriots (-5.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 40.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Broncos (+5.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 40.5-point over/under is expected to go over 55% of the time.
Broncos vs Patriots: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Denver at $3.10 with Bet365
- Line: Broncos +5.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 40.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Stats Insider's Broncos vs Patriots best bets are based on world-class simulations and gambling experience to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Patriots have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Broncos to win is our preferred option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term profitability.
Broncos vs Patriots: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Broncos vs Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High on Monday is the Patriots winning 22-18.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Denver vs New England game on Monday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Broncos vs Patriots: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Broncos vs Patriots? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Denver's RJ Harvey is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Broncos vs Patriots.
Harvey has an 11.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the Broncos RB has a 53.5% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our complete list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Broncos First TD Tips
- RJ Harvey: 11.1% probability
- Courtland Sutton: 6.5% probability
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 4.2% probability
- Pat Bryant: 3.6% probability
- Troy Franklin: 3.5% probability
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 10.4% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 9.4% probability
- Drake Maye: 6.7% probability
- Hunter Henry: 6.6% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 5.9% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Broncos Anytime TD Tips
- RJ Harvey: 53.5% probability
- Courtland Sutton: 36.1% probability
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 25.2% probability
- Pat Bryant: 22.2% probability
- Troy Franklin: 21.6% probability
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 45.8% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 42.5% probability
- Drake Maye: 32.5% probability
- Hunter Henry: 32.2% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 29.1% probability
Broncos-Patriots Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Jarrett Stidham is projected for 194 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 234 yards.
Broncos Starting QB
- Jarrett Stidham: 194 projected passing yards
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 234 projected passing yards
Broncos Rushing Yards
- RJ Harvey: 54 projected yards
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 38 projected yards
- Jarrett Stidham: 14 projected yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 50 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 40 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 31 projected yards
Broncos Receiving Yards
- Courtland Sutton: 54 projected yards
- Pat Bryant: 31 projected yards
- Troy Franklin: 27 projected yards
- Evan Engram: 24 projected yards
- RJ Harvey: 15 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 53 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 44 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 41 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 23 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting predictions before the Denver vs New England game.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips for every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Broncos vs Patriots: Essential Details
The match-up between the Broncos and Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to begin at 7:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
- Playoff Round: NFL AFC Championship
- Date: Monday 26 January 2026
- Time: 7:00am AEDT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Denver vs New England predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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