Broncos vs Patriots Prediction and Preview - NFL AFC Championship Game 2026
Last updated: Jan 25, 2026, 8:01PM | Published: Jan 19, 2026, 10:55AM
The Denver Broncos will sqaure off with the favoured New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game of the NFL Playoffs at Empower Field at Mile High on Monday, commencing at 7:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Broncos vs Patriots game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Denver vs New England NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Patriots a 62% chance of defeating the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
Broncos vs Patriots: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Empower Field at Mile High are shown here:
- Head to Head: Broncos $2.75, Patriots $1.48
- Line: Broncos +3.5 ($1.91), Patriots -3.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 43 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Broncos at $2.75 and the Patriots at $1.48.
The Broncos are listed as 3.5-point underdogs against the Patriots, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Patriots (-3.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 43 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the bookmakers have got it right and both the Broncos and the Patriots have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 43-point over/under is expected to go over 52% of the time.
Broncos vs Patriots: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Denver at $2.75 with Bet365
- Line: Patriots -3.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 43 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Broncos vs Patriots betting tips are based on detailed simulations and betting experience to bring you the best possible advice 24/7.
While the Patriots have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Broncos to win is our recommended option because of the 1.3% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
Broncos vs Patriots: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Broncos vs Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High on Monday is the Patriots prevailing 23-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Denver vs New England game on Monday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
Get expert analysis from the US with Dimers' in-depth Broncos vs Patriots prediction.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Broncos vs Patriots: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs Patriots? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, New England's Rhamondre Stevenson is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Broncos vs Patriots.
Stevenson has a 10.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the Patriots RB has a 43.0% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Broncos First TD Tips
- RJ Harvey: 9.8% probability
- Courtland Sutton: 6.2% probability
- Pat Bryant: 4.1% probability
- Marvin Mims: 3.9% probability
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 3.9% probability
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 10.1% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 6.7% probability
- Hunter Henry: 6.5% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 5.8% probability
- Drake Maye: 5.5% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Broncos Anytime TD Tips
- RJ Harvey: 42.2% probability
- Courtland Sutton: 29.6% probability
- Pat Bryant: 20.6% probability
- Marvin Mims: 19.7% probability
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 19.7% probability
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 43.0% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 31.0% probability
- Hunter Henry: 30.3% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 27.7% probability
- Drake Maye: 26.4% probability
Broncos-Patriots Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Jarrett Stidham is projected for 216 passing yards. The Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 232 yards.
Broncos Starting QB
- Jarrett Stidham: 216 projected passing yards
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 232 projected passing yards
Broncos Rushing Yards
- RJ Harvey: 42 projected yards
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 27 projected yards
- Jarrett Stidham: 17 projected yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 54 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 37 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 32 projected yards
Broncos Receiving Yards
- Courtland Sutton: 53 projected yards
- Pat Bryant: 40 projected yards
- Marvin Mims: 33 projected yards
- Evan Engram: 25 projected yards
- RJ Harvey: 24 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 51 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 44 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 37 projected yards
- Mack Hollins: 31 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Denver vs New England game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips for every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Broncos vs Patriots: Essential Details
The game between the Broncos and Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to begin at 7:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
- Playoff Round: NFL AFC Championship
- Date: Monday 26 January 2026
- Time: 7:00am AEDT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Denver vs New England predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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