Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 10, 2026
Last updated: May 14, 2026, 9:26AM | Published: May 10, 2026, 6:31AM
Brisbane will take on Geelong in AFL Round 10 action at The Gabba on Thursday, commencing at 7:30pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Brisbane vs Geelong game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Thursday's Brisbane vs Geelong AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Lions a 70% chance of beating the Cats at The Gabba.
Brisbane vs Geelong: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at The Gabba are listed below:
- Head to Head: Brisbane $1.54, Geelong $2.50
- Line: Brisbane -10.5 ($1.91), Geelong +10.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 182.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Brisbane at $1.54 and Geelong at $2.50.
The Lions are listed as 10.5-point favourites against the Cats, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Cats (+10.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 182.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Lions (-10.5) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 182.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
Brisbane vs Geelong: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Brisbane at $1.54 with Bet365
- Line: Brisbane -10.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 182.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
When you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of our best tips of the day across all sports.
Our Brisbane vs Geelong betting tips are based on complex simulations and betting intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
Brisbane vs Geelong: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Brisbane vs Geelong at The Gabba this Thursday is Brisbane winning 98-82.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Brisbane vs Geelong match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Brisbane vs Geelong: Goal Kickers
Looking for Brisbane vs Geelong goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Geelong's Jeremy Cameron is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Brisbane vs Geelong.
Cameron has a 10.0% chance of kicking the first goal at The Gabba, while the Cats star has a 97.0% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Brisbane
- Logan Morris: 7.5% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 6.7% probability
- Kai Lohmann: 6.6% probability
- Zac Bailey: 6.4% probability
- Cam Rayner: 4.9% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 10.0% probability
- Shannon Neale: 6.8% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 4.8% probability
- Oliver Dempsey: 3.9% probability
- Jack Martin: 3.8% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Brisbane
- Logan Morris: 91.0% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 89.2% probability
- Zac Bailey: 87.1% probability
- Kai Lohmann: 87.1% probability
- Cam Rayner: 77.9% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 97.0% probability
- Shannon Neale: 90.0% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 73.7% probability
- Oliver Dempsey: 69.3% probability
- Jack Martin: 69.3% probability
Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting predictions before the Brisbane vs Geelong match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Brisbane vs Geelong: Essential Details
The AFL Round 10 clash between the Lions and Cats at The Gabba is scheduled to start at 7:30pm AEST on Thursday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Brisbane vs Geelong predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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