Bills vs Patriots Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 5, 2025
Last updated: Oct 3, 2025, 8:15PM | Published: Sep 30, 2025, 6:55AM
The Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots in NFL Week 5 action at Highmark Stadium on Monday, starting at 11:20am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Bills vs Patriots game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's Buffalo vs New England NFL game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 77% chance of winning against the Patriots at Highmark Stadium.
Bills vs Patriots: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Highmark Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Bills $1.22, Patriots $4.50
- Line: Bills -8 ($1.91), Patriots +8 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 48.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Bills at $1.22 and the Patriots at $4.50.
The Bills are listed as 8-point favourites against the Patriots, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Patriots (+8) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 48.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bills (-8) are predicted to cover the line 52% of the time, while the 48.5-point over/under is expected to go over 52% of the time.
Bills vs Patriots: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: New England at $4.50 with Bet365
- Line: Bills -8 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 48.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Bills vs Patriots best bets are based on detailed simulations and gambling expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Patriots to win is our recommended option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is pivotal to being a profitable bettor in the long run.
Bills vs Patriots: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Bills vs Patriots at Highmark Stadium in Week 5 is the Bills winning 29-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Buffalo vs New England game in Week 5, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Bills vs Patriots: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Bills vs Patriots? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's James Cook is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Bills vs Patriots.
Cook has a 14.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills RB has a 60.3% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills First TD Tips
- James Cook: 14.1% probability
- Josh Allen: 10.0% probability
- Keon Coleman: 5.6% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 5.0% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 4.5% probability
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 5.7% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 5.7% probability
- Hunter Henry: 5.2% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 4.9% probability
- Drake Maye: 3.5% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- James Cook: 60.3% probability
- Josh Allen: 48.1% probability
- Keon Coleman: 30.6% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 27.8% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 25.7% probability
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 28.6% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 28.4% probability
- Hunter Henry: 26.5% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 24.9% probability
- Drake Maye: 18.7% probability
Bills-Patriots Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 235 passing yards. The Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 228 yards.
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 235 projected passing yards
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 228 projected passing yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 78 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 32 projected yards
- Ray Davis: 24 projected yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Drake Maye: 36 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 35 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 28 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Khalil Shakir: 48 projected yards
- Keon Coleman: 45 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 39 projected yards
- Joshua Palmer: 24 projected yards
- James Cook: 19 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 52 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 42 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 33 projected yards
- Mack Hollins: 19 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 19 projected yards
Remember, our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the Buffalo vs New England game.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips on every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Bills vs Patriots: Week 5 Essential Details
The NFL Week 5 game between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 11:20am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
- Date: Monday 6 October 2025
- Time: 11:20am AEDT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Buffalo vs New England predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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