Bills vs Patriots Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 5, 2025
Last updated: Sep 30, 2025, 6:52AM | Published: Sep 29, 2025, 4:01AM
The Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots in NFL Week 5 action at Highmark Stadium on Monday, commencing at 11:20am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Bills vs Patriots game, along with the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Buffalo vs New England NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 75% chance of defeating the Patriots at Highmark Stadium.
Bills vs Patriots: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Highmark Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Bills $1.25, Patriots $4.20
- Line: Bills -7.5 ($1.91), Patriots +7.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 49.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Bills at $1.25 and the Patriots at $4.20.
The Bills are 7.5-point favourites against the Patriots, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Patriots (+7.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 49.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bills (-7.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 49.5-point over/under is expected to go over 52% of the time.
Bills vs Patriots: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: New England at $4.20 with Bet365
- Line: Bills -7.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 49.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Bills vs Patriots predictions are based on market-leading simulations and betting expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Patriots to win is our preferred option due to the 1.1% edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is pivotal to being a profitable punter in the long run.
Bills vs Patriots: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Bills vs Patriots at Highmark Stadium in Week 5 is the Bills winning 28-21.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Buffalo vs New England game in Week 5, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Bills vs Patriots: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs Patriots? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's James Cook is the most likely player to score the first TD in Bills vs Patriots.
Cook has a 14.3% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills RB has a 60.3% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills First TD Tips
- James Cook: 14.3% probability
- Josh Allen: 9.4% probability
- Keon Coleman: 6.4% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 4.5% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 4.4% probability
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 7.0% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 6.4% probability
- Hunter Henry: 5.3% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 4.9% probability
- Drake Maye: 2.8% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- James Cook: 60.3% probability
- Josh Allen: 45.4% probability
- Keon Coleman: 33.6% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 25.2% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 24.6% probability
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 34.1% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 31.7% probability
- Hunter Henry: 27.0% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 25.1% probability
- Drake Maye: 15.4% probability
Bills-Patriots Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 255 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 218 yards.
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 255 projected passing yards
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 218 projected passing yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 66 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 27 projected yards
- Ray Davis: 24 projected yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 39 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 32 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 26 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Keon Coleman: 53 projected yards
- Khalil Shakir: 44 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 40 projected yards
- Joshua Palmer: 36 projected yards
- James Cook: 17 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 43 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 38 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 34 projected yards
- Mack Hollins: 18 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 17 projected yards
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Buffalo vs New England game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Bills vs Patriots: Week 5 Essential Details
The NFL Week 5 match-up between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 11:20am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
- Date: Monday 6 October 2025
- Time: 11:20am AEDT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Buffalo vs New England predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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