Bills vs Patriots Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 4, 2026

The Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots in NFL Week 4 action at Highmark Stadium on Monday, October 5, starting at 4:00am AEDT.

This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Bills vs Patriots game, as well as the latest betting odds in Australia.

Who Will Win?

Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Patriots vs Bills 10,000 times.

Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Bills a 71% chance of defeating the Patriots at Highmark Stadium.

Bills vs Patriots: Odds

The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for this NFL game at Highmark Stadium are listed below:

• Head to Head: Bills $1.32, Patriots $3.50
• Line: Bills -6.5 ($1.91), Patriots +6.5 ($1.91)
• Total (Over/Under 48.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Bills at $1.32 and the Patriots at $3.50.

The Bills are listed as 6.5-point favourites against the Patriots, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.

For the underdog Patriots (+6.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 48.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's model, the Bills (-6.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 48.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Bills vs Patriots: Betting Tips

• Head to Head: New England at $3.50 with Bet365
• Line: Bills -6.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
• Total Points: Under 48.5 at $1.91 with Bet365

Our Bills vs Patriots betting tips are based on detailed modelling and betting experience to provide you with the best possible advice 24/7.

While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Patriots to win is our preferred option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.

Bills vs Patriots: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Bills vs Patriots at Highmark Stadium in Week 4 is the Bills prevailing 27-20.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Buffalo vs New England game in Week 4, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.

Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Buffalo vs New England game.

As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips for every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Bills vs Patriots: Week 4 Essential Details

The NFL Week 4 game between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:00am AEDT on Monday, October 5.

• Teams: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
• Date: Monday 5 October 2026
• Time: 4:00am AEDT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

Our Buffalo vs New England predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.

If you choose to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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