After a solid start to the AFLW season at Club 20 with a 16.4% POT (profit on turnover) in Round 1, we’re looking to go even better in Round 2.

With wild, wet or windy conditions forecast to impact most of the games (again) this week, there is value about for those patient enough to pounce at the right time. 

With AFLW in particular it is critical to get weather info right, so at this early stage on Friday we won't be going too hard at anything just yet, instead I thought we’d run through each game briefly and identify some likely plays and possible exotics. 

Bulldogs v Demons 

Friday 7:40pm (AEDT) @ Whitten Oval, Melbourne

The rain is very likely to impact this game, which is a shame for people that judge AFLW on total points scored, but great for footy purists and more importantly, us punters. Rain brings the Dogs right into the game tonight. Isabel Huntington is out for the Bulldogs but Eleanor  Brown is very capable across half back and midfield. They also lose Celine Moody meaning Kim Rennie will have to shoulder vast majority of the ruck, but Dees are playing a smaller more mobile ruck anyway, so wouldn't have a huge impact.

Any rain will dramatically slash the score here, so even if it's just sprinkling, unders is the play. Two strong defensive midfields and two solid backlines will ensure that this game remains very low-scoring in the wet. Also consider the Tri-Bets as strong options tonight. Monitor BOM radar and be ready, check back in with us on  Club 20 twitter closer to bounce for our bets.

Kangaroos v Giants

Saturday 3.10pm (AEDT) @ UTAS Stadium, Launceston

Forecast is for little to no rain in Launceston for this game but whether it’s raining or dry, the Giants are in all sorts of trouble here. 

Even if the GWS midfield win their share of midfield battles, they just don’t have the defence to go with the Roos’ forwards. Kangas look a great bet H2H and I’d have a very good look at the -11.5 spread if it’s dry. If it is dry, there is a good case to be made for Roos 25+ and 40+ for the braver punters, whilst Emma King should have little trouble against this Giants defence - really like her for Most Goals in this game at a great price.

Suns v Tigers

Saturday 5:10pm (AEDT) Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast

The Suns welcome in Ellie Hampson who will make that backline even more difficult to score against but also be able to rebound off half back. The Gold Coast has had more rain than it has ever had in February so far. So even if the forecast afternoon shower doesn’t eventuate it is going to be a heavy track. 

Both these teams will want to get win #1 and the Suns played pretty well in wet conditions first up. Sabrina Frederick is even more useless in the wet and with Suns at home - I don’t have nearly as much separation between these two sides as markets do and will be very tempted by the Unders, Suns line or a Tri Bet looking for a close, low-scoring game.

Eagles v Dockers

Saturday 7:10pm (AEDT) Optus Stadium, Perth

Optus Stadium, perfect weather – Eagles could be in a fair bit of trouble here. Should be a tough first quarter but once the Dockers get repeated access to their forward line, the Eagles will not be able to stop them scoring. No one on that Eagles defence can go with Gemma Houghton and every single Docker will be running out looking at former teammates that left them to go across town to the enemy. 

Freo 25+ and 40+ both in play here with Gemma Houghton, Roxanne Roux and Sabreena Duffy all in line for multiple goals. Expect a Freo fill up here.

Cats v Lions

Sunday 1:10pm (AEDT) GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Cats started $2 outsiders which I loved, but have since been backed into favouritism likely on the back of Jess Wuetschner out for the Lions. She proved a vital link between the midfield and forward line and with that Cats back six, a proper stadium and good weather I can’t see the Lions being able to score enough to win this one. I Got pretty burnt by the Lions pluck R1 effort but prepared to back my pre-season assessment of their list and say without rain they just won't be able to hit the scoreboard enough and are also likely to leak points. Cats are a better team than they showed against Freo, their accuracy by foot will carve the Lions up here. Love the H2H price still, few sneaky goal scorer exotics in play too for the Cats. 

Blues v Magpies

Sunday 3:10pm (AEDT) @ Ikon Park, Melbourne

Pies have lost Bri Davey which has resulted in the Blues being smashed into heavy favourites. Kristy Stratton should come into the side, they will need her tackling. Van Dyke for Carlton is a big out she is a quality defender, makes smart decisions and uses it really well. Expect Madison Prespakis to be tagged, Breann Moody to smash Sharni Layton in the ruck if Pies persist with playing her there so much and also plan for the Blues to get eleventy one free kicks, 3 or 4 of which likely to be close enough to goal that they can throw the ball through for a major. 

With all that factored in, I think the Pies are in with a better chance than markets suggest. We saw last week that once the Pies got sorted, the Eagles barely scored, and Ash Brazill had an average game. She will likely take Tayla Harris as Stacey Livingstone doesn’t have the speed. 

It's going to be a very fierce, contested game which suits the Blues' game style but I’m not touching them at that price in a game I think the Pies can win.

Crows v Saints

Sunday 5:10pm (AEDT) @ Richmond Oval, Adelaide

The Crows should win this easily but the short price is just silly given their outs and what we saw last week in Brisbane. Can’t touch them at that price against a Saints team that didn’t do too much wrong on debut. Their effort was there, contested work was good. Any money made here will be in the goal scorers markets and/or maybe a bet on Crows 25+ or 40+. 

They are a team that can pile on points and got horrid weather first up in Brisbane but just feel markets have overestimated them slightly. We want to see that forward line click sans Erin Phillips before being really confident. Keen to see if they bring in a second ruck and where they put Jess Foley if that happens.

No specific bets here just yet, but a few options that we’re circling ahead of what looks to be a round full of hidden value especially in some of the more exotic markets so have our twitter feed fired up as Club 20 bets drop throughout the weekend.

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