AFL Grand Final Preview: West Coast
Last updated: Sep 27, 2018, 6:57AM | Published: Sep 27, 2018, 5:04AM
It's been a long and unexpected journey to the Grand Final for the West Coast Eagles, who weren't even expected to make the Finals at the start of the season. Tipped by many as potential underachievers, the Eagles have stunned the football world en route to a sensational season.
Built upon a sturdy defence, brilliantly led by Jeremy McGovern and Shannon Hurn, and a potent attack led by the twin towers of Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy, the Eagles have been a powerhouse in 2018.
Elliot Yeo and Jack Redden have emerged as stars in midfield alongside Andrew Gaff, and Scott Lycett has led the ruck department efficiently since Nic Naitanui went down with a season-ending knee injury.
How Did They Get Here?
Despite an opening round loss to Sydney, West Coast powered their way to second on the AFL ladder, earning themselves a double chance and home seeding throughout the Finals series.
They were consistent through the season, and dominant at home, Optus Stadium. The Eagles defeated the Magpies in the first weekend of the finals, storming home in the final quarter to overturn a three quarter time deficit. West Coast earned a week off and subsequently destroyed the fairytale-fancies, Melbourne, in a home Preliminary Final by over 10 goals.
Key Factors and Numbers
West Coast has ridden the strength and balance of the AFL's 5th best attack and 5th best defence to the Finals. They lead the AFL in marks and contested marks, ranked #1 in both categories. The Eagles have a 15-0 record when they take 90+ marks in a game, and 3-6 with less.
Collingwood will need to stop their run-and-gun, pinpoint kicking game if they're going to slow West Coast down. The Pies did a great job of limiting the Eagles to only 84 marks in the qualifying final and will need to do the same again on the wide expansive space of the MCG.
When Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy both play this season, West Coast are 12-0. Both players were key when the Eagles thrashed Collingwood in round 17, kicking three goals apiece.
The contested possession count will also play a huge role in determining who wins the game. Last week we noted this in our Preliminary Final preview:
"West Coast meanwhile are defined by their ability to use the contested ball to impact games. According to AFL data:
- West Coast are 17-0 when their contested possession count is -11 or better
- West Coast are 0-6 when their contested possession count is -12 or worse"
The Eagles are now 18-0 when their contested possession count is -11 or better, after winning the contested battle against Melbourne 158-145. If they can beat the second best-contested side in recorded AFL history (Melbourne 2018), that bodes well as they go up against the 3rd ranked side in 2018 in Collingwood.
West Coast will be up against it, with the last five interstate sides unsuccessful against Victorian opposition on Grand Final day, but the Eagles have proven to have built a brand that stacks up in the Finals cauldron. Now they need to overcome the odds and their 2015 grand final demons, taking it one step further to Grand Final glory.
