AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 4, 2026
Last updated: Apr 5, 2026, 1:16PM | Published: Mar 29, 2026, 9:16AM
To give you an advantage with your AFL tips for Round 4, we have AFL Round 4 tips 2026 for every match this weekend.
As Australia's leading provider of AFL expert tips, Stats Insider is here to help with AFL tipping for each game in Round 4 of the 2026 season.
AFL Round 4 Expert Tips 2026
There are eight games in Round 4 of the 2026 AFL season, beginning with Brisbane vs Collingwood on Thursday and ending with Hawthorn vs Geelong on Monday.
Our AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by trusted data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 4 2026 a must-read resource for AFL tipsters.
AFL Tips Round 4 2026: Who Will Win
Detailed below are our predictions for each AFL game in Round 4, 2026, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Round 4 action kicks off with Brisbane taking on Collingwood at The Gabba on Thursday night. Our AFL model projects Brisbane as having a 71% chance of winning, while Collingwood has a 29% projected win chance.
Brisbane vs Collingwood is at The Gabba on Thursday, April 2 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).
North Melbourne vs Carlton
In this week's game between North Melbourne and Carlton, the Blues are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 60% chance for Carlton. North Melbourne, on the other hand, has a 40% chance of winning.
North Melbourne vs Carlton is at Marvel Stadium on Friday, April 3 at 3:15pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
Adelaide vs Fremantle
Our model has these two teams at a 50-50 split heading into the game, with a slight edge towards tipping Adelaide to get the win over Fremantle on Friday night.
Adelaide vs Fremantle is at Adelaide Oval on Friday, April 3 at 7:15pm AEDT.
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
With a win probability of 67%, our tip for this match is Port Adelaide, while its opponent, Richmond, has a projected win chance of 33%.
Richmond vs Port Adelaide is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, April 4 at 4:15pm AEDT.
More: AFL Player Ratings
West Coast vs Sydney
The Swans have an 83% chance of winning on Saturday night, compared to West Coast's 17% chance of victory. This makes Sydney the team to tip at Optus Stadium.
West Coast vs Sydney is at Optus Stadium on Saturday, April 4 at 7:35pm AEDT.
Melbourne vs Gold Coast
Gold Coast is favoured to win its Round 4 match, with our model giving them a 67% chance, while Melbourne enters the weekend with a 33% chance of causing an upset at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Melbourne vs Gold Coast is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, April 5 at 3:15pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
According to our predictive analytics model, the Western Bulldogs are the team to beat in this game, with the Bulldogs' win probability at 99%. Essendon, on the other hand, has a 1% chance of pulling off an upset victory.
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, April 5 at 7:20pm.
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Our model is tipping the Hawks in this match, with Hawthorn given a 63% chance of winning, while Geelong has a 37% win probability.
Hawthorn vs Geelong is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday, April 6 at 3:15pm.
AFL Tipping Round 4 2026: Who to Tip
- Brisbane
- Carlton
- Adelaide
- Port Adelaide
- Sydney
- Gold Coast
- Bulldogs
- Hawthorn
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 4 Games to Tip On
- Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Carlton Blues
- Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers
- Richmond Tigers vs Port Adelaide Power
- West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans
- Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns
- Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats
AFL Round 4 Bye Teams: Who Has a Bye This Week
- GWS Giants
- St Kilda Saints
The AFL footy tips Round 4 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
If you choose to use our AFL tips for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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