AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 21, 2026
Last updated: Jul 26, 2026, 9:16PM | Published: Jul 26, 2026, 9:26AM
Searching for data-driven AFL tips for Round 21? We have AFL Round 21 tips 2026 for every game this weekend.
Get an edge in AFL tipping competitions thanks to our data-driven AFL expert tips for Round 21 of the 2026 AFL season, the result of simulating each AFL match 10,000 times.
As we head into the final rounds of the 2026 AFL season, our expert tips have become even more vital. Make the most of our model's Round 21 AFL tips to give yourself a chance of securing the best possible finish in this year's footy tipping.
AFL Round 21 Expert Tips 2026
Round 21 of the AFL season features nine games, beginning with Collingwood vs Geelong on Thursday and ending with Hawthorn vs North Melbourne on Saturday.
The below AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by independent data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 21 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters of every level.
AFL Tips Round 21 2026: Who Will Win
Listed below are our predictions for every AFL clash in Round 21, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Collingwood vs Geelong
Round 21 action kicks off with Collingwood taking on Geelong at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday. Our predictive analytics model projects both teams as having a 50% chance of winning this one, with a slight lean towards tipping Collingwood to win.
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, July 30 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
In Friday night's game between Fremantle and the Fremantle, the Dockers are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting an 83% chance for Fremantle. On the other hand, the Western Bulldogs have a 17% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs is at Optus Stadium on Friday, July 31 at 8:10pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
Richmond vs West Coast
We are tipping West Coast to win its game against Richmond this week, with our model projecting a 55% win probability for the Eagles. Richmond has a 45% chance of winning.
Richmond vs West Coast is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, August 2 at 1:10pm.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
With a win probability of 52%, our tip for this game is Melbourne, while its opponent, Gold Coast, has a projected win chance of 48%.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne is at Metricon Stadium on Sunday, August 2 at 3:15pm.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Essendon vs Adelaide
The Crows have a 92% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to Essendon's 8% chance of victory. This makes Adelaide the team to tip at Marvel Stadium.
Essendon vs Adelaide is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, August 2 at 4:40pm.
Port Adelaide vs GWS
Adelaide Oval is set to host Port Adelaide and GWS this Saturday, with our model struggling to split the two teams. In saying that, we are tipping Port Adelaide to win due to a slight edge in the probabilities.
Port Adelaide vs GWS is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, August 1 at 6:35pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Carlton vs Brisbane
According to our predictive analytics model, Brisbane is the team to beat in this game, with the Lions' win probability at 71%. Carlton, on the other hand, has a 29% chance of winning.
Carlton vs Brisbane is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, August 1 at 7:40pm.
St Kilda vs Sydney
We are tipping the Swans in this match, with Sydney given a 61% chance of winning, while St Kilda has a 39% win probability.
St Kilda vs Sydney is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, August 1 at 1:05pm.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
The last game of Round 21 sees Hawthorn take on North Melbourne at York Park.
We are tipping Hawthorn with a win probability of 85%, while North Melbourne is projected to have a win chance of 15%.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne is at York Park on Saturday, August 1 at 1:35pm.
AFL Tipping Round 21 2026: Who to Tip
- Collingwood
- Fremantle
- West Coast
- Melbourne
- Adelaide
- Port Adelaide
- Brisbane
- Sydney
- Hawthorn
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 21 Games to Tip On
- Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats
- Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs
- Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles
- Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons
- Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows
- Port Adelaide Power vs GWS Giants
- Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions
- St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans
- Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
The AFL footy tips Round 21 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
If you choose to use our tips for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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