AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 21, 2026
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026, 10:36AM | Published: Jul 26, 2026, 9:26AM
Searching for help with your AFL tips for Round 21? We have AFL Round 21 tips 2026 for every match this weekend.
As Australia's leading provider of AFL expert tips, Stats Insider is here to help you with AFL tipping for all the action in Round 21 of the 2026 season.
As we enter the final weekends of the 2026 AFL season, these expert tips are becoming even more vital. Utilise the below Round 21 AFL tips to give yourself a chance of securing the best possible finish in this year's footy tipping.
AFL Round 21 Expert Tips 2026
There are nine games in Round 21 of the 2026 AFL season, starting with Collingwood vs Geelong on Thursday and concluding with Hawthorn vs North Melbourne on Saturday.
The below AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by cutting-edge data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 21 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters across the country.
AFL Tips Round 21 2026: Who Will Win
Featured below are our predictions for every AFL game in Round 21, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Collingwood vs Geelong
Round 21 action kicks off with Collingwood playing Geelong at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday night. Our AFL model projects Geelong as having a 53% chance of winning, while Collingwood has a 47% projected win chance.
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, July 30 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
In Friday night's game between Fremantle and the Fremantle, the Dockers are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 91% chance for Fremantle. The Western Bulldogs, on the other hand, have a 9% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs is at Optus Stadium on Friday, July 31 at 8:10pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
Richmond vs West Coast
We are tipping West Coast to win its game against Richmond this week, with our model projecting a 59% win probability for the Eagles. Richmond has a 41% chance of winning at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Richmond vs West Coast is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, August 2 at 1:10pm.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
With a win probability of 53%, our tip for this match is Melbourne, while its opponent, Gold Coast, has a projected win chance of 47%.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne is at Metricon Stadium on Sunday, August 2 at 3:15pm.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Essendon vs Adelaide
The Crows have an 88% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to Essendon's 12% chance of victory. This makes Adelaide the team to tip at Marvel Stadium.
Essendon vs Adelaide is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, August 2 at 4:40pm.
Port Adelaide vs GWS
GWS is favoured to win its game this week, with our model giving them a 53% chance, while Port Adelaide enters the weekend with a 47% chance of locking in a win at Adelaide Oval.
Port Adelaide vs GWS is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, August 1 at 6:35pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Carlton vs Brisbane
According to our predictive analytics model, Brisbane is the team to beat in this game, with the Lions' win probability at 69%. Carlton, on the other hand, has a 31% chance of winning.
Carlton vs Brisbane is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, August 1 at 7:40pm.
St Kilda vs Sydney
Our model is tipping the Swans in this match, with Sydney given a 61% chance of winning, while St Kilda has a 39% chance of an upset win.
St Kilda vs Sydney is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, August 1 at 1:05pm.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
The last game of Round 21 sees Hawthorn take on North Melbourne at York Park.
We are tipping Hawthorn with a win probability of 88%, while North Melbourne is projected to have a win chance of 12%.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne is at York Park on Saturday, August 1 at 1:35pm.
AFL Tipping Round 21 2026: Who to Tip
- Geelong
- Fremantle
- West Coast
- Melbourne
- Adelaide
- GWS
- Brisbane
- Sydney
- Hawthorn
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 21 Games to Tip On
- Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats
- Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs
- Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles
- Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons
- Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows
- Port Adelaide Power vs GWS Giants
- Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions
- St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans
- Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
The AFL footy tips Round 21 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and trustworthy, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
If you decide to use our AFL tips for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
As well as being your expert resource for AFL footy tips, Stats Insider is your go-to site for AFL betting information, with the latest AFL betting news, predictions for every AFL match, weekly AFL best bets, and AFL premiership probabilities.
