AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 17, 2026
Last updated: Jul 5, 2026, 10:17AM | Published: Jun 28, 2026, 11:18AM
Looking for an advantage on your AFL tips for Round 17? We have AFL Round 17 tips 2026 for every game this weekend.
As Australia's leading provider of AFL expert tips, Stats Insider is here to help with AFL tipping for each game in Round 17 of the 2026 season.
AFL Round 17 Expert Tips 2026
There are nine games in Round 17 of the 2026 AFL season, beginning with Geelong vs Brisbane on Thursday and finishing with Essendon vs St Kilda on Sunday.
These AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by cutting-edge data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 17 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters.
AFL Tips Round 17 2026: Who Will Win
Featured below are our predictions for each AFL game in Round 17, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Geelong vs Brisbane
Round 17 AFL action kicks off with Geelong playing Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night. Our model projects Geelong as having a 70% chance of winning, while Brisbane has a 30% win probability.
Geelong vs Western Bulldogs is at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, July 2 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs
In this week's game between Sydney and the Sydney, the Swans are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 70% chance for Sydney. On the other hand, the Western Bulldogs have a 30% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs is at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Friday, July 3 at 7:40pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
West Coast vs Adelaide
We are tipping Adelaide to win its game against West Coast this week, with our powerful AFL model projecting an 81% win probability for the Crows. West Coast has a 19% chance of winning.
West Coast vs Adelaide is at Optus Stadium on Friday, July 3 at 8:10pm.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
With a win probability of 68%, our tip for this match is Hawthorn, while its opponent, Melbourne, has a projected win chance of 32%.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne is at York Park on Saturday, July 4 at 1:15pm.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Richmond vs Carlton
The Blues have an 83% chance of winning this week, compared to Richmond's 17% chance of victory. This makes Carlton the team to tip at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Richmond vs Carlton is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, July 4 at 7:35pm.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Port Adelaide is favoured to win this game, with our model giving them a 68% chance, while North Melbourne enters the weekend with a 32% chance of winning at Adelaide Oval.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne is at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, July 5 at 4:40pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
GWS vs Fremantle
According to our predictive analytics model, Fremantle is the team to beat in this game, with the Dockers' win probability at 76%. GWS, on the other hand, has a 24% chance of winning.
GWS vs Fremantle is at Manuka Oval on Saturday, July 4 at 1:35pm.
Gold Coast vs Collingwood
We are tipping the Suns in this game, with Gold Coast given a 58% chance of winning, while Collingwood has a 42% win probability.
Gold Coast vs Collingwood is at Metricon Stadium on Saturday, July 4 at 4:15pm.
Essendon vs St Kilda
The last game of Round 17 sees Essendon take on St Kilda at Marvel Stadium.
We are tipping St Kilda with a win probability of 79%, while Essendon is projected to have a win chance of 21%.
Essendon vs St Kilda is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, July 5 at 3:15pm.
AFL Tipping Round 17 2026: Who to Tip
- Geelong
- Sydney
- Adelaide
- Hawthorn
- Carlton
- Port Adelaide
- Fremantle
- Gold Coast
- St Kilda
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 17 Games to Tip On
- Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
- Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs
- West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons
- Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues
- Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
- GWS Giants vs Fremantle Dockers
- Gold Coast Suns vs Collingwood Magpies
- Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints
The AFL footy tips Round 17 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
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